Anti-immigration political parties are making big gains across Europe these days. Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party just won two major state parliamentary elections, campaigning in part on mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Spain’s far-right Vox party continues to grow in popularity, especially after a recent surge of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. And in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is climbing in the polls ahead of next year’s presidential election, promising tougher border controls and restrictions on immigration.
It may at first seem curious, then, that this is happening at a time when irregular migration into Europe is actually declining — and fast.
According to a new report from the International Organization for Migration, the number of migrants and asylum seekers who arrived by sea in the first nine months of 2026 has plummeted nearly 40% — to 60,000 — compared to the same period last year. Overall, in 2025, the number of irregular border crossings of all kinds fell to below 200,000. That is a staggering drop from the height of the European migrant crisis of 2015-2016, when more than a million people sought refuge in Europe.
What accounts for the decline?
First, some of the crises that pushed people to leave their home countries have abated. The 2024 overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, for example, ended a decade-long civil war that at its peak sent millions of Syrians fleeing to Europe in 2015-2016. Over the past two years, however, an estimated 3.5 million Syrians have returned home from abroad or from displacement within their country. While the new Syria faces enormous challenges, the circumstances driving Syrians to flee are no longer what they were a decade ago.
Second, Europe — which a decade ago welcomed millions of asylum seekers — has since cracked down on migration. The unprecedented wave of arrivals in 2015 stoked popular concerns about mass irregular migration that were quickly echoed by populist parties, especially on the right. According to polling from November 2025, majorities in some of Europe’s largest countries wanted less immigration, even if they tended to drastically overestimate the actual number of irregular migrants in their countries. Since then, that pressure has forced governments run by centrist parties and coalitions to tighten immigration rules and enforce them more diligently.
This year, for example, Germany intensified checkpoints along its borders and started allowing its border police to turn away asylum seekers, while the UK made refugee status temporary. Even historically welcoming Sweden has radically changed course. In 2015, it received around 163,000 asylum seekers, among the highest numbers per capita in Europe. By 2025, applications for asylum in the country had fallen by roughly 96%. Policy has also tightened at the EU level. In June, a new EU Pact on Migration and Asylum took effect, requiring all EU countries to follow the same, stricter procedures when processing irregular migrants. It was the first unified policy on the issue in the history of the bloc.
Finally, European nations are relying more on non-EU countries to stop migration waves before they reach EU borders. The bloc has struck agreements with countries like Turkey, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, providing financial assistance and other incentives in exchange for increased cooperation on border enforcement and managing migration flows. The EU cites this cooperation with non-EU nations as a major reason irregular arrivals have declined significantly. In a way, Europe is increasingly outsourcing the issue beyond its own borders, making it more difficult to reach the continent in the first place.
However, with irregular migration dropping, Europe’s far-right parties face an interesting dilemma: What happens if one of the major issues fueling their rise begins to fade? Immigration remains a powerful political topic, and concerns about national identity and the economic pressures associated with migration aren’t easing just because fewer people are arriving.
But for parties like the AfD and National Rally, the challenge will be whether they can continue to capitalize on those concerns, or whether, as they get close to national power for the first time, they pivot to other issues to sustain their momentum.
