AI explosion, elections, and wars: What to expect in 2024

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What are the global ramifications of Red Sea shipping disruptions?

This is a lot of ships that are carrying a lot of goods that can't go through the Red Sea because the Houthis are hitting them. And so instead they're going around the Cape of Good Hope, which is South Africa. It's a lot longer and it's more expensive. You know, it's not really an impact on the markets in the sense that the goods are still getting through. So it's not like you're not getting your oil, you're not getting your commodities. It is going to hurt the Egyptian economy significantly because they're not getting that transit and the fees. It would benefit South Africa, but their ports are a huge mess. So, I mean, funnily enough, it's probably a benefit for like Namibia and Mozambique and we'll see for how long It lasts.

Was 2023 a good year for Vladimir Putin?

On balance, I would say no. I mean, you know, he had his former chef and his confidant and his paramilitary supporter, you know, Prigozhin with the coup against him and ended up dead. So that's not great. And that was a lot of money that worked for the Kremlin. And also, he's got 11 rounds of sanctions against him and half of his sovereign assets frozen by the Americans, by the Europeans, by the entire developed world. And, of course, he also had a huge hit to his human capital with not only a whole bunch of men getting ground down in the fight, but also a lot of them leaving because they don't want to get caught up. So the last couple of months have been good in the sense that they're not losing territory that they've taken from Ukraine. And so he can spin anything as a win because he's a dictator. But things look horrible for Putin, irrespective of the nature of the fight with Russia-Ukraine.

As 2023 comes to a close, what are the biggest stories to look ahead at in 2024?

Well, I mean, of course, all these elections happening in so many parts of the world. I mean, in India, in the European Union, in the United States, in Russia, of course, which is going to be a real nail biter. Who knows what could happen there. And then you have incredible transition of explosion for artificial intelligence impacting the way all of us live. Massive upside opportunities, massive downside disruptions and governance desperately trying to catch up. Those seem to be some of the biggest things, not to mention the fact that we've got a bunch of big wars going on. And of course, the nature of the Chinese economy, a lot of stuff to focus on.