India's latest COVID explosion hits home as one Delhi-based journalist speaks with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World about her own father's death from the virus. Barkha Dutt has been reporting on the pandemic in India since it began, but nothing could prepare her for the catastrophic second wave that has hit her country in the last few weeks—and that has now shattered her own family. Would her father have survived if the oxygen tank in his ambulance had been working, or if the ambulance hadn't gotten stuck in Delhi traffic? She asks similar questions of her national government. Why was it caught so unprepared by this second wave, well over a year into the pandemic? Why has India, the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, been so slow to vaccinate its own citizens? And how much of the blame falls at the feet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
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What responsibility do wealthy nations have to ensure the least developed countries aren't left behind? Have we actually made any progress since the COVID-19 outbreak? Today at 11am ET/8am PT, join GZERO Media and Microsoft for a live Global Stage discussion: Unfinished Business: Is the world really building back better?
The New Yorker's Susan Glasser will moderate a discussion with Brad Smith, President and Vice Chair, Microsoft; David Malpass, President, World Bank Group; Michelle Bachelet, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media; and Dr. Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme. Special appearance by António Guterres, UN Secretary-General.
Watch LIVE today, Wednesday 9/22 at 11am ET/ 8am PT/ 5pm CEST at gzeromedia.com/globalstage.
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QUAD supply chain strategy to consider values; new AI-powered weapons
Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:
How will the QUAD leaders address the microchip supply chain issue during their meeting this week?
Well, the idea for leaders of the US, Japan, India, and Australia, is to collaborate more intensively on building secure supply chains for semiconductors, and that is in response to China's growing assertiveness. I think it's remarkable to see that values are becoming much more clearly articulated by world leaders when they're talking about governing advanced technologies. The current draft statement ahead of the QUAD meeting says that collaboration should be based on the rule of respecting human rights.
Will AI dominate the future battlefields?
Well, we've already seen new uses of AI-powered arms, but also new opportunities for cyberattacks from the increased use of AI, which leads to growing and vulnerable attack surface. The New York Times recently investigated how Iran's top nuclear official was executed with an AI-assisted, remote-controlled killing device. The gun, equipped with intelligent satellite systems, used AI to verify when and at whom to fire the lethal shots. So there are new weapons, but also new opportunities to exploit vulnerabilities in AI. It is safe to say that warfare is already changing and that in many ways, conflict and cyberattacks, as a result of both, the specific use in arms as well as the broad uptake in society will change dramatically.
On the one hand, UN Secretary-General António Guterres believes COVID has fractured trust between mainly rich and poor countries, especially on vaccines, as the pandemic "demonstrated our enormous fragility." On the other hand, it generated more trust in science, especially on climate — practically the only area, Guterres says, where the US and China can find some common ground these days. Watch his interview with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World.
UNGA WATCH: Who's gonna vaccinate "the world"?
Well, we're in the thick of "high-level week" for the United Nations General Assembly, known as UNGA. As always, the busiest few days in global diplomacy are about more than just speeches and hellish midtown traffic in Manhattan. Here are a few things we are keeping an eye on as UNGA reaches peak intensity over in Turtle Bay.
Biden's COVID Summit: The US president wants to "vaccinate the world" — but who precisely is going to do that? On the sidelines of UNGA, Biden is holding a virtual COVID summit on Wednesday in hopes of hashing out a more coordinated global pandemic response. That includes expanding the production and distribution of vaccines and medical equipment, investing in healthcare infrastructure, and establishing global benchmarks for pandemic progress. One target is to vaccinate 70 percent of adults in the world by September 2022. A lofty goal, as the current mark is barely 30 percent. Part of the problem is that wealthy countries have bought up lots of shots to vaccinate their own people first. And although the US has donated more vaccines globally than any other country, Biden's own administration is now weighing whether to recommend boosters at home. If the US does so, it'll be hard for other rich countries' governments to say no to boosters for their own people — meaning fewer shots available for billions of unvaccinated folks in poorer countries. Can Biden square all of these circles?
Hustling to revive Iran nuclear talks: Talks between the US and Iran have stalled since Iran's hardline president Ebrahim Raisi took power in June. But there are signs that side hustles aimed at getting negotiations back on track are afoot at UN HQ this week. On Monday, UK foreign secretary Liz Truss met with her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian — both are new to their posts — to chart a path forward on the nuclear front, as well as to discuss the release of arbitrarily detained British nationals. US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, told the General Assembly that Washington won't allow Tehran to build a bomb, but he is willing to return to compliance with the deal if Iran does the same. Tehran seems game to start talking again: Iran state TV confirmed this week that the long-stalled talks could resume negotiations in the coming weeks. This development comes just weeks after Iran, which has breached most of the nuclear deal's terms since former US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, agreed to allow UN inspectors to monitor various sites linked to its nuclear program, sidestepping a threat of formal censure from the US, UK, France, and Germany if it failed to comply. Still, chasms remain between the two sides. Can sideline work at the UN narrow the gap?
Climate (in)security: Just a month ago, a new UN report called climate change a "code red for humanity." This week, there are two high-level meetings dedicated to doing something about it. First, the Security Council will hold a meeting Thursday morning on "climate and security." That's because climate change now threatens peace itself by heightening conflicts over increasingly scarce water and crops, and by exacerbating political tensions through forcing larger migrations of people fleeing war, famine, or flooding. Then, the UN hosts a high-level dialogue on Energy, where countries will try to hash out more detailed approaches to cutting carbon emissions. All of this is really just a warmup for the UN's COP 26 meeting in November, the critical forum for addressing that Code Red alert. Outside of the meetings, a big announcement from Xi Jinping: China, the world's top polluter, will stop building coal-fired plants everywhere... except in China.
Should governments set limits on the use of artificial intelligence? Definitely, says UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet, who's asking member states to hold off on further development of AI technology until all the "negative, even catastrophic" risks that come with it can be ironed out. But it's hard to imagine strong agreement from countries like China, the US, or Israel which already have powerful AI industries and are wary of handcuffing them with global regulation. Still, there's no question that AI can cause harm in a number of ways, from algorithms that codify harmful biases all the way up to AI-driven killing machines (Israel recently built a doozy to kill Iran's top nuclear scientist). UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres mentioned AI specifically in his speech on Tuesday, let's see if it crops up elsewhere in the next few days.
The Graphic Truth: Who's driving global methane emissions?
Ahead of the 76th UN General Assembly, the US and the EU both agreed to cut methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by the end of the decade to reduce global warming. Will they convince other top emitters like China, Russia and India to do the same before the COP26 climate summit in November? This would be a big deal, because methane emissions, one-quarter of which come from agriculture, are the biggest contributors to climate change after carbon dioxide — and 80 times more potent in warming the planet. We take a look at the world's top methane emitters, compared with their respective carbon dioxide emissions.
Most of the hard-hitting conversations at the UN General Assembly take place behind closed doors. Still, during High-Level Week, when leaders get up to speak at the podium, it's their one big shot to send a message to representatives from the entire world. Here's some of what went down today:
Brazil: Bolsonaro restrained — In the lead-up to the 76th UNGA, Brazil's unvaccinated President Jair Bolsonaro was causing a stir (again) by refusing to comply with New York state law requiring proof of vaccination in public places. (Unable to visit any of New York City's top-notch restaurants, Bolsonaro was snapped eating pizza on the sidewalk like the rest of us plebeians.)
But this confrontational attitude mostly disappeared when a very restrained Bolsonaro stood at the UNGA podium Tuesday, where he expressed support for vaccination efforts (though not mandates), and referenced the government's efforts to combat deforestation. Still, Bolsonaro invoked the culture wars by saying that more latitude should be given to doctors to experiment with COVID treatments, including the "off-label" treatments that aided his recovery last year. Either way, it's the most tame Bolsonaro we're going to get.
US: Biden did his shtick — Amid a massive row with the French, who were recently excluded from a US-led security pact in the Pacific, US President Joe Biden tried to reassert America's commitment to working with allies, which surely caused a few eye-rolls throughout the auditorium.
In a bid to defend his record on Afghanistan, Biden said that the era of "relentless diplomacy" would replace the era of "endless war," and reiterated his oft-repeated stance that US military power should not be used as an "answer to every problem we see around the world." Biden also pledged to boost funding to help poorer countries tackle climate change, and adopted a more conciliatory tone in referencing foes (presumably China): "We're not looking for a new Cold War."
While Biden appeared to say all the right stuff, contrasting with his predecessor's go-at-it-alone approach, in practice his foreign policy hasn't been that different from Trump's at all.
Iran: Raisi wants you to know he's tough — In a pre-recorded address, Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi made his UNGA debut. And one thing is clear: Raisi is no moderate. Much of his rant-laced speech was focused on denigrating "the US hegemonic system," though he did have some ripper one-liners: "no one cares about America First or America is Back." Raisi also lamented the lack of spirituality in the world, which he says, has spurred the rise of global terrorism.
Still, despite taking aim at the US and defending his country's "peaceful" nuclear program, Raisi did not push back against recent reports that Tehran could resume negotiations with the West over its nuclear program in the near term.
Turkey: Erdogan's laundry list — Clearly, the speechwriter of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted to make sure that no issue was left unchecked when his boss took the stage at UNGA. Erodgan covered it all. He took aim at wealthy countries for vaccine nationalism, which he called a "disgrace," and affirmed Turkey's commitment to allies spanning Africa, the EU, and Latin America. Turkey's strongman also paid lip service to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calling the "persecution of Palestinians" one of the biggest impediments to Middle East stability.
Referencing a series of global crises, Erdogan made it clear that Ankara wants to be the power broker in Libya as well as in post-US Afghanistan, which he said has been "abandoned."
Imagine you're China. How would you feel if the some of the world's richest and most powerful countries, the US and its allies, were constantly joining forces against you, yet officially pretending not to?
First they set up a mega-regional trade deal that left you out unless you gave up your own — highly successful — state-led capitalism model to get rich. (America then backed out because of hello, Donald Trump, but still.) Then they dusted off an old talk shop that now looks suspiciously like an attempt to create an Asian NATO around you. Then, to try to pry away some of your new friends, they vowed to build bridges, ports and roads in many of the same developing countries where you've been doing the same thing for years.
Now, the US and its Anglophone besties, the UK and Australia, have unveiled AUKUS, an ambitious new security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region. As part of the pact, Australia is getting fancy new nuclear-powered submarines that your equipment can't easily detect.
The AUKUS partners say this new club it has nothing to do with you — but everyone knows it's all about you.
On the one hand, you have reasons to be upset.
You used to be poor, but worked extremely hard to get to where you are today. You'd be happy just being the big boss in Asia, whatever the Indians say. You don't want to meddle in the other countries' business, nor for any other country to meddle in yours — unlike America and its buddies in Afghanistan or, for that matter, Iraq.
The AUKUS gang say you're oppressing Uyghurs and democracy-loving Hong Kongers, as well as threatening Taiwan, but you think it's none of their business. Shouldn't they get their own houses in order before criticizing yours? And who are they to complain about your famous Nine-Dash Line when it comes to who owns what in the South China Sea?
On the other hand, maybe those who don't like you have a point.
Perhaps they are right when they say you only played by their trade rules until you figured out how to cheat. Perhaps you also went too far with the Aussies for wanting to know where a certain virus came from. Perhaps you fear some of your new friends now won't have your back because they owe you money but don't trust you.
Still, with AUKUS now you have big problems. First, it'll be much harder for you to mess around in the South China Sea with the Aussie subs lurking. Second, since those subs run on the same stuff as nukes, you're worried about Japan or South Korea asking for the tech and then using the fuel to build their own atomic arsenals, sparking a regional arms race. Third, you'd rather avoid having to splurge on military tech just to keep up.
Which all raises the question — what'll you do about it?
Part of you wants to stay calm, look at the bigger picture, and tell yourself that later on your enemies may change their minds when they change governments, or that their squabbles over how to deal with you will leave you room to just do your thing. You might even persuade some of their friends to be your friends too, especially in Europe, where many countries still want to sign a trade deal with you — and the French are seething over le grand sub snub.
But another part of you, which some call the "wolf warrior" side, is fed up with playing nice and then getting the short end of the stick. After all, you know that sooner or later you'll dominate Asia because America and its buddies aren't willing to put up an actual fight to stop you. And you've waited far too long to get your hands on that insubordinate self-governing island.
Now that the West laying its cards on the table so openly, do you feel like making another bold move of your own?Hard Numbers: BTS make UNGA go viral, many virtual speeches, US pledges more climate cash, Libyan no-confidence vote
6.4 million: More than 6.4 million viewers tuned in live to watch K-pop band BTS give a speech at the UN General Assembly on Monday, where they called for young people to get vaccinated and become involved in fighting climate change. It's the most-watched clip ever on the UN's YouTube channel, shattering the previous record set by Emma Watson in 2014. By contrast, only a few thousand viewers checked out US President Biden's speech live the next day.
60: Although more than 100 world leaders traveled to New York to attend this year's UN General Assembly in person, 60 heads of state opted instead to send pre-recorded speeches. The list includes China's Xi Jinping, Russia's Vladimir Putin, France's Emmanuel Macron, and Iran's Ebrahim Raisi.
11.4 billion: President Biden announced on Tuesday that the US will donate $11.4 billion annually over the next three years to help developing nations combat climate change, double the amount previously committed. Still, it's less than half what the European Union, with a smaller economy than America's, gives per year now for the same goal.
89: While the representative of Libya's UN-backed government prepared to address the UN General Assembly on Tuesday in New York, 89 out of 113 members of Libya's lower house of parliament voted to oust the same government from power. The upper house then rejected the resolution, casting further doubt on the UN-led peace process that aims to hold elections in December after a decade of civil war.Today In 60 Seconds
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