VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Start your day right!
Get latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
US Politics In 60 Seconds
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington
Presented by
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's Managing Director for the US, breaks down the US political landscape on US Politics In 60 Seconds:
Today, we're going to start by discussing some of the big picture trends in US politics that are going to affect the election outlook for this year. So, bear with me if this takes a little more than a minute.
When I think of big trends in US politics, I think the number one thing is the growing rural-urban divide between the two parties. If you look back to the 1980 election, the Democrats took about 59% of the vote in the most urban districts, and they took about 56 percent of the vote in the most rural districts in the country. If you fast forward to 2018 and the midterm elections, the Democrats took about 75 percent of the vote in the most urban districts, and they took only 40 percent of the vote in the most rural districts. So, you're going from a three-point spread in the 80s to a 35-point spread today. And that's really one the defining characteristics of how the parties have realigned themselves facing the new electoral reality.
What that means is increasing partisanship as you've got increasing geographic concentration among the two parties. The Democrats are largely becoming a younger, more diverse, in some cases better educated party. The Republican Party is becoming increasingly white, increasingly rural and a little bit older than the Democratic Party. As a result, you're seeing enhanced partisanship across the US political spectrum. People are clustering in areas where they're more likely to come across people who share their partisan views. There's higher correlation between the House, the Senate and the White House, meaning it's more difficult for policymakers to differentiate themselves from their party. And you've got a fracturing media ecosystem where it's easier to hear points of view that reinforce your own. And there's less agreement not only about what the solutions to public policy problems are, but what the problems themselves are.
So, what does that mean for the 2020 election? Well, you're very likely to see a very close election that looks very similar, with a map that looks very similar to the map in 2016. Meaning you've got a number of states that are solidly blue, a number of states that are really solidly red and a small number of states in the middle that will be decided based on these questions of the rural-urban divide.
In particular, three questions that we'll be watching closely are: Do African American voters in cities show up to vote for Joe Biden? Can Trump hold on to his predominately white rural base? In many cases, they flipped over from Obama to Trump in 2016. Can he hold on to them? And three, what happens in the suburbs? Where a lot of educated, college educated Republicans moved away from the Republican Party, giving the House to the Democrats in 2018 midterms? And if that trend continues, it's very good for Joe Biden and could be trouble for President Trump.
So, it should be really interesting election year and I'm looking forward to watching with you.
Keep reading...Show less
More from US Politics In 60 Seconds
How Biden’s presidency will be remembered
January 18, 2025
What Trump’s cabinet picks reveal so far
November 22, 2024
US election: GOP could win a Trump-led sweep
November 06, 2024
2024 US election: What to look out for
November 04, 2024
Defining Kamala Harris at DNC 2024
August 23, 2024
DNC unites around 3 key themes
August 22, 2024
Why Project 2025 is getting so much attention at the DNC
August 21, 2024
DNC Night 2: Obama set to rally support for Harris
August 20, 2024
What Tim Walz adds to Kamala Harris' campaign
August 06, 2024
With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump?
July 21, 2024
RNC shows how Trump has transformed GOP
July 19, 2024
Trump's pick for VP: JD Vance
July 15, 2024
Will the Trump attack shift GOP approach at the RNC?
July 15, 2024
Why replacing Biden would be a challenge
June 28, 2024
Trump's VP pick: The short list
June 21, 2024
Trump has been found guilty. Will voters care?
May 30, 2024
Campus protests spill over into US political sphere
May 02, 2024
Trump's NYC hush-money trial: What to watch for
April 11, 2024
How Trump's money problems could affect the 2024 election
March 29, 2024
Biden's vigorous SOTU speech aims to prove doubters wrong
March 08, 2024
Why Mitch McConnell is stepping down
February 28, 2024
3 themes to watch as US election season begins
January 10, 2024
Ballot battle: Colorado vs Trump
December 20, 2023
What Democrats and Republicans have in common this Thanksgiving
November 22, 2023
Biden's 2024 prospects slip even as Democrats make gains
November 09, 2023
Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person
October 26, 2023
Is Biden's embrace of Israel a political liability for him?
October 20, 2023
What's next after Kevin McCarthy's ouster?
October 03, 2023
The implications of Senator Feinstein's passing
September 29, 2023
US government shutdown: No end in sight
September 28, 2023
Mitt Romney will be defined by opposing Trump
September 14, 2023
No-show Trump wins first GOP debate
August 24, 2023
Trump skips debate
August 22, 2023
Will Trump's indictment in Georgia do him in?
August 16, 2023
Trump's uncertain future amid new indictments
July 28, 2023
Hunter Biden's legal issues are an opportunity for GOP
July 27, 2023
Threads, Twitter, & the 2024 US election
July 11, 2023
Why Mexico is a key issue in the 2024 US election
June 29, 2023
Timing on Trump's federal trial has huge implications
June 09, 2023
Biden & McCarthy both win in debt ceiling showdown
June 02, 2023
DeSantis' 2024 strategy: dominate the internet
May 24, 2023
Debt ceiling deal: long way to go in little time
May 18, 2023
2024 elections: Another likely Biden v Trump extravaganza
April 26, 2023
Subsidy game could hurt Canada-US relations
April 03, 2023
Hugely popular TikTok unlikely to be banned by US Congress
March 25, 2023
SVB political fallout ... not as dramatic as you think
March 16, 2023
Biden shifting to center ahead of 2024 reelection bid
March 08, 2023
Nikki Haley's in, but GOP primary remains Trump/DeSantis showdown
February 15, 2023
State of the Union a Biden 2024 campaign preview
February 08, 2023
Biden's "mini" document scandal could hurt his position with Dems
January 27, 2023
GOP partisanship could trigger first-ever US default
January 19, 2023
Five concessions McCarthy made to become House speaker
January 12, 2023
Speaker vote mess shows how ungovernable US House is
January 05, 2023
Zelensky tells Congress US aid is only path to war resolution
December 22, 2022
Zelensky in Washington for arms & aid, not just symbolic support
December 21, 2022
Independent Kyrsten Sinema won't change the US Senate
December 09, 2022
Warnock's Georgia victory: Dems control every Senate Committee
December 07, 2022
US Dems and GOP can be thankful this Thanksgiving
November 23, 2022
Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans?
November 16, 2022
GOP underperforms and Dems surprise in US midterms
November 09, 2022
US voters think GOP can fix the economy, but can they? Not likely
November 01, 2022
Will the 2022 midterms affect US support for Ukraine?
October 25, 2022
Reading the US midterm election tea leaves
October 18, 2022
Will US Congress change Social Security?
October 13, 2022
GOP wants immigration front and center in midterms
September 23, 2022
Have Republicans ruined their chances of taking the Senate?
September 14, 2022
NatCon 2022: Conservatives rethink foundations of the American right
September 13, 2022
Will the DOJ charge Trump after Mar-a-Lago raid?
August 31, 2022
Trump Mar-a-Lago affidavit: who accessed top secret documents?
August 26, 2022
$10,000 in student loan forgiveness: what's the point?
August 24, 2022
Closing tax loopholes: How US Congress will fund spending bill
August 05, 2022
Are we in a recession?
July 27, 2022
Climate emergency: limited Biden executive power
July 21, 2022
Are US politicians too old?
July 13, 2022
GZERO Series
© 2025 GZERO Media. All Rights Reserved | A Eurasia Group company.
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.