Is Russia the biggest geopolitical tail risk today?

What is the biggest geopolitical tail risk today?

At the 2026 US-Canada Summit, hosted by Eurasia Group and RBC in Toronto, Ian Bremmer assesses the geopolitical risks shaping an increasingly volatile global landscape. He highlights Russia as one of the most significant tail risks today, driven by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the potential for further escalation.

Ian warns that the stakes extend beyond the battlefield, pointing to broader implications for European security and global stability as the conflict continues. “I worry about Putin having made the singular worst decision of any leader on the global stage in the post-Cold War era,” he says, underscoring concerns about a more unpredictable and isolated Russian leadership.

As global tensions persist, Ian examines how miscalculation and escalation risks remain central to the international system’s most dangerous fault lines.