Lebanon wants Israel out. Israel wants Hezbollah disarmed. Can peace hold?

Lebanon sees its new US-backed framework with Israel as a path toward a full Israeli withdrawal. Israel, however, views it as justification for remaining in southern Lebanon until the Lebanese government disarms Hezbollah. Journalist Kim Ghattas tells Ian Bremmer that Lebanon has little leverage, and that sending the Lebanese Army to confront Hezbollah could trigger another civil war.

“The thought in Israel is that since we have not been able to militarily defeat Hezbollah, then let’s let the Lebanese fight it out with each other. And if there’s a civil war, that’s fine,” Ghattas says. “That is precisely what we need to try to avoid.”Still, Ghattas sees a potential opening. Even as the broader US-Iran ceasefire agreement falls apart, direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are continuing with strong US support. Could Lebanon become the starting point for a rare diplomatic success?