Iran temporarily and partially shut down the Strait of Hormuz – the maritime entryway that handles over 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipping – ahead of a second round of nuclear talks with the US. The move was a show of leverage by Iran, signaling strength to its citizens and its ability to influence global oil prices. Despite the display, Iran is coming into negotiations on weak footing. Its economy is collapsing under sanctions, and it’s staring down the barrel of the US military buildup in the region. Washington’s demands now go beyond Iran’s nuclear program, including limits on ballistic missiles. Iran is highly unlikely to accept those conditions, Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew recently told GZERO. However, after the first day of talks, Iran vaguely said that officials had agreed to a “set of guiding principles.” Meanwhile, parallel peace talks are underway in Switzerland on the Russia-Ukraine war.
Chinese imports of Russian oil are set to reach a record high in February, as both small “teapot” refineries and larger firms capitalize on the discounted fuel. Shipments to China are expected to surpass two million barrels per day, up from 1.7 mb/d in January, according to two early assessments. US threats to Iran, which is a major oil supplier to China, have prompted Chinese refineries to seek more crude from Russian sources. The move contrasts with Indian refineries, which have drastically started cutting Russian oil purchases as part of a trade deal with the United States announced earlier this month by President Donald Trump.
Last spring, Algeria and Niger – two sprawling North African countries — nearly went to war after Algeria shot down a drone from Mali, a close ally of Niger’s. Ambassadors were recalled, and longstanding plans to jointly build a 4,000-kilometer gas pipeline were shelved. But after a visit this week to Algiers by Niger’s president, Abdourahamane Tiani,all appears to be forgiven, and the project will now go ahead. It’s a big deal: the Trans Saharan Gas Pipelinewould bring more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas yearly from Nigeria, across Niger, to Algeria. Europe, which is trying to wean itself off of Russian gas, is taking note: those new volumes could complement the roughly 40 billion cubic meters of gas that Algeriaalready exports to the EU.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer argues that the war between the United States and Iran has entered a more dangerous phase, with both sides demonstrating they can sustain military and economic pressure without forcing the other to back down. The question is, will this standoff bring them back to the table before the conflict escalates further?
Ukraine is bringing the war to Russia, challenging one of the conflict's biggest assumptions: that time is on Vladimir Putin's side. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba joins Ian Bremmer to discuss whether the war is entering a new phase.
For years, Russia has counted on one advantage above all else: time. Ian Bremmer explains why Ukraine's expanding campaign inside Russia is challenging that assumption, and what it could mean for the future of the war.
The US president used a primetime address last night to argue America’s election system is broken and vulnerable to “rigging.” He pointed to documents he says show Chinese interference in the 2020 vote. But the evidence Trump offered, along with past assessments from the intelligence community, doesn’t support his broadest claims.