Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow imply they don't fear Russian response
May 31, 2023
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Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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Will recent Moscow targeted drone attacks lead Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine? Biden and McCarthy reached a deal. Is the US debt problem solved? After Erdogan's election, will it be more of the same for Turkey & its struggling economy? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will recent Moscow targeted drone attacks lead Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine?
Well, so far, Putin has been claiming that these are terrorist attacks like he did the recent raids in Belgorod region, also in Russia. Certainly, it's interesting to note that Ukrainians taking these actions imply that they don't believe that Putin can or will do much in escalation. Also, keeping in mind this seems to be indiscriminate targeting of residential areas. No Russians have been killed that we know of, so far. But this is tit for tat, the kind of behavior we've seen from the Russians, of course, committing war crimes all over Ukraine. Really hate to see the Ukrainians engaging in that kind of behavior. Should be condemned, frankly. Not what the Americans or what most NATO allies want to see. And also shows the limitations of how much influence NATO has over Ukrainian military decision making.
Something to keep in mind. Biden and McCarthy reached a deal. Is the US debt problem solved?
Well, first of course, it has to go through a vote. Should go through with majorities from both parties within a couple of days in the House of Representatives, much easier in the Senate. Does interestingly show that McCarthy and Biden have a very functional working relationship, better than anything we've seen since Boehner and Obama had a beer together at the White House. And by the way, they didn't work together as effectively as we see McCarthy and Biden, right now. Given all the partisanship, it's useful to remind people of that. The debt limit comes back, we'll be talking about it right after the 2024 election. No one's resolved this, at all. But nice to see that cooler heads can indeed prevail in what otherwise was going to be a serious problem for the US economy.
After Erdogan's election, will it be more of the same for Turkey & its struggling economy?
Well, its struggling economy is probably going to get worse, because of course Erdogan has spent so much money, so many giveaways, in the run-up to election to ensure that he would indeed win. And he did relatively easily. But that also means, given all the pressure on the lira, given all the pressure on their fiscal balance, and on their indebtedness with inflation rates up, and risk-off behavior globally, the Turkish economy's going to be under a hell of a lot of pressure. The potential for a financial crisis, especially as we get through the summer, out of tourist season where the Turks make a lot of money, and into higher energy use, there are going to be real challenges for these guys. Also makes me think that Erdogan will continue to be more moderate in how he plays broader geopolitics, as he needs supports from the Gulf states, needs support from the Americans, the Europeans. Doesn't really want to alienate or antagonize anybody. And so, he'll try to be flexible. He'll try to be seen as a statesman that works with everyone and gets as much leverage as he can from every component of that geopolitical equation.
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