Skip to content
Search
Human content, AI powered search.

Latest Stories

polymarket

Illustration of the Polymarket website and logo. Polymarket is an online betting platform where users can bet on various global events, including political outcomes. Often a source of controversy, the site is banned in France, but this does not prevent a dozen bets from being placed on French current affairs.
Analysis

Are prediction markets the new polls?

As Americans head toward November’s midterms, the boom of apps like Polymarket and Kalshi is raising a bigger question: can prediction markets rival – even replace – traditional polling?

Another Polymarket ban
Hard Numbers

Another Polymarket ban

Spain temporarily banned the US-based prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi on Tuesday, as well as its rival Kalshi, arguing that they were operating without a gambling license.

The midterms: Races that could decide the Senate
Graphic Truth

The midterms: Races that could decide the Senate

We’ve put together a cheat sheet of 11 races to watch, based on the Cook Political Report’s ratings: contests that lean Republican, contests that lean Democratic, and toss-ups.

The explosion of prediction markets
Graphic Truth

The explosion of prediction markets

Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal before 2027? Will the Cuban regime fall this year? Will France win the World Cup? These questions are generating up to millions of dollars today on prediction markets — platforms where people wager on the outcomes of real-world events.

Casino depicting things commonly bet on by political betters.​
by ian bremmer

The case against political prediction markets

The day before the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, more than 150 accounts on Polymarket correctly bet it would happen on that specific date.