Podcast: The Horror Unfolding in Idlib, Syria

TRANSCRIPT: The Horror Unfolding in Idlib, Syria

David Miliband:

These are the largest displacements, the most virulent fighting. It's a humanitarian emergency. It's a political emergency.

Ian Bremmer:

Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast, where you'll find extended versions of the interviews from my show on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today I focus on an unfolding crisis you may not have heard much about. A Syrian government offensive is underway. The objective is to retake the last remaining rebel holdout of the war. And nearly a million Syrians have already fled. It's the largest exodus of the conflict to date. The battle lines are moving, squeezing residents of Idlib province against a sealed Turkish border to the north. All of these people are trapped and many are children. I'm going to examine the roots of this crisis with a man who is desperately trying to address it. That's David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee. Let's get to it.

Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company understands the value of service, safety and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit FirstRepublic.com to learn more.

Ian Bremmer:

David Miliband, president of the International Rescue Committee, former foreign secretary. Good friend. Great to be back with you.

David Miliband:

Thanks Ian. Yep, good to be with you.

Ian Bremmer:

So really the topic, while everyone is talking about coronavirus, not many people are talking about the worst refugee crisis to come out of this war in Syria. And of course talking about Idlib, almost a million people have already been displaced. What is... give us the state of play of the crisis right now.

David Miliband:

So it's not just a million people have been displaced in the last three months. These are people, we're talking three and a half million people in total.

Ian Bremmer:

In the region?

David Miliband:

In this region of Syria, the Idlib region of Syria in the northwest of Syria. These are people, half of whom have come from other parts of Syria, and they've been shepherded there by the government when it conquered different parts of the country. So these are people who've been displaced twice, three times, four times, even we've met people who've had ten movements, families with kids being moved on from house to house.

Ian Bremmer:

Over the course of the war?

David Miliband:

Cousin to cousin from onwards and onwards. We've got 50,000 people living under trees in temperatures of -10, -11, -12 degrees centigrade. We've got bombing campaigns that have, by the Syrians and the Russians, the Syrian government, their Russian supporters, that have closed over seventy health facilities. You've got now a million people being crowded up against the Turkish border in makeshift camps. And this is a situation that in a time when everyone's sick of the war in Syria, I know that, the Syria fatigue set in a long time ago-

Ian Bremmer:

Even in Europe, it's not making anywhere near the headlines that it was when that little child washed up on shore.

David Miliband:

Exactly. Alan Kurdi in 2015. So I get that people are fatigued with the war, not half or a quarter of people who are living in Syria who've more than had enough. But these are the largest displacements, the most virulent fighting that the war has seen in the course of the 9 years, nearly 9 years that it's been going. So it's a humanitarian emergency, it's a political emergency, because international law is being broken on a daily basis. The bombing of civilians in health centers is a war crime.

Ian Bremmer:

Now we can, and we will talk about what needs to be done and who's responsible for all this. But first perhaps the 'why' it's not getting attention. One obvious reason is that these people right now are still trapped in Syria up against the Turkish border. They're not getting into Turkey, they're not getting into Europe. Is that-

David Miliband:

Well, that's a good point.

Ian Bremmer:

Sustainable?

David Miliband:

So you are saying it's because it hasn't become a European crisis it's therefore not become a political crisis.

Ian Bremmer:

Part of the reason, I'm wondering if that's going to continue to happen in your view, in other words, is that sustainable? Can Turkey continue to keep these million plus people? And again, three million in the region, basically balled up in what feels like Gaza right now?

David Miliband:

Well, it's interesting that you use the Gaza comparison. Others have as well because of the density of the population. That's the reason they talk about. Now we know from-

Ian Bremmer:

And because they can't get anywhere.

David Miliband:

But we know from Gaza that, that can endure for a very long time. Here you've got more than the population of Gaza. So this can endure. But what President Erdoğan of Turkey has said very clearly is that for every new refugee he takes in, remember he is got 3.7 million already-

Ian Bremmer:

He's going to let someone through.

David Miliband:

There's another one's going to go to... I don't think it's just that though. I think that people don't know what the answer to the Syria crisis is. They don't see any actors whose side they want to be on. We are on the side of the civilians. And I think that that's the side that they should-

Ian Bremmer:

We being the IRC?

David Miliband:

The International Rescue Committee. But I think, frankly, anyone with an ounce of humanity should recognize that the civilians of Syria are bearing the brunt of this war, which is a campaign of eradication of opposition that the Assad regime is putting into place. It's at the expense of the population. He doesn't want the refugees to come back, remember. He's made very clear, President Assad, through a range of policies and statements that he's got a new Syria that he's trying to build on the population who's already there. And so I think the absence, those are the reasons why this hasn't become a global issue.

There's one other thing that's very important. When the United States isn't present in a discussion, nevermind in a military discussion, it's not going to be an issue in the United States. It's striking at the Democratic debate, the candidates were more or less agreed [that] the worst thing would be to have to have any American troops there. But of course there are American troops in Syria, they're in the northeast of the country.

Ian Bremmer:

They've been pulled back from the border area?

David Miliband:

Yeah, but they're in the northeast of the country. And I just want to make this point. It's not a total accident that there's relative stability in the northeast of the country.

Ian Bremmer:

Where the Americans happen to be.

David Miliband:

Well, I am not a believer that America can be in every part of the world that needs the peace to be kept. But we do know that the ring has been held in the northeast of Syria, in part by the fact it's a Kurdish region, in part by the fact that the Kurds have their own Peshmerga, their own defense force, but also by the fact that there are Americans, they're now notionally with a mission confined to the protection of the oil fields, but actually nonetheless putting some guardrails on the actions that are taken both by the Syrian government and by their Syrian supporters.

Ian Bremmer:

Imagine for a second that I'm President Trump. You're talking to me and you have an opportunity to say what I need to do to respond to this crisis within the realm of what is politically feasible. You would say what?

David Miliband:

So I'm running a humanitarian organization. I'm not going to advise him on Pentagon military strategy. What I would say to him is, one, decide that you really care about the fate of these people and the geopolitical impact of more instability in Syria and across the Middle East. Secondly, make it absolutely clear to the Russians, to the Iranians and to the Syrians that there are consequences, costs for the way the war is being prosecuted in Syria. Third, make absolutely clear that you've got some immediate demands. One, stop the shelling and the missiles. Two, let the humanitarian aid flow because the UN has a whole list of demands that it needs of more aid to come in. Three, treat the wounded who need help now and whose trauma has to be addressed. Fourth and finally, stay with this. This is not just... the fate of Syria is not just for Syria, Iran, Syria, and Turkey to decide. This needs to be brought back into the international arena where the US and others alongside the Syrians and the Russians and the Iranians have a say.

Ian Bremmer:

And of course you haven't mentioned anyone but the Americans in terms of playing a potentially constructive role. Am I to believe that your view, if the United States doesn't do more militarily on the ground and/or politically and economically vis-à-vis the Russians, the Syrians, the Iranians, that functionally the Europeans are not going to be any-

David Miliband:

Well, it's really tough for the Europeans to do on their own. They're doing some things on their own. They're working with the Turks and in fact supporting the Turks in their hosting of refugees. There's significant financial support that's going to Turkey from the European Union.

Ian Bremmer:

To keep the refugees in Turkey?

David Miliband:

Essentially.

Ian Bremmer:

Essentially. Yeah.

David Miliband:

Effectively that's the bargain that's been struck. And there are some unprincipled aspects to that. But there also, remember, there's also a principled aspect. The hosting of refugees is a global public good. And the countries that host refugees, be they Turkey, be they Lebanon, be they Jordan, be they countries in Africa or in Bangladesh, the case of hosting the Myanmar refugees, it's right that they get international support. So it's not the case that Europe can do nothing but politically and diplomatically, it's enormously, Europe is enormously held back if it's not acting in concert with the US.

Ian Bremmer:

So what do you think is likely to happen? How do you think this is likely to play out over the coming 6, 12 months?

David Miliband:

Well, I'm afraid it's going to get worse before it's going to get better.

Ian Bremmer:

What does worse mean?

David Miliband:

Exactly. Worse means more killing, more loss of life, incidentally rather than just directly as a result of the war. Because of the conditions we've heard about the seven children who've died in the freezing conditions. More misery for the Syrians, more fear among the refugees who are outside Syria of going home.

Ian Bremmer:

So I'm reluctant to even ask this, but we know that in some of the world's worst conflict areas, like in Yemen, it's not just about the war. On top of that, they also ended up with one of the worst health conditions with cholera, of anywhere. We're now all of course very deeply concerned about coronavirus. And Iran for example, is one of the biggest outbreaks and their ability to control their borders is minimal. So clearly it seems like this is likely to get into the refugee crisis in Syria. How do you even begin to think about the implications, how to manage it? What do you do?

David Miliband:

Well look, I think that the way to think about it is as follows. Coronavirus has no respect for borders, obviously, but it is attracted by the vulnerable. And some of the most vulnerable are people who are on the run as a result of war. Now not withstanding the Iranian case up 'til now, the Middle East has been relatively speaking free of the coronavirus. But you are absolutely right to say that in populations on the move, the capacity for hygiene for effective public health is massively compromised.

We are obviously worried both about the entry of the disease, the spread of the disease, and then finally we know that the death rate globally is kept down to 2% amongst those who have got it because there are health interventions. The populations who don't have health interventions, who don't have the kind of machinery that's needed to support them, those are the people that we are serving. And so really trying to think through not just the prevention side but also the treatment side is a massive challenge now because although you are right, it hasn't yet hit displaced populations. It must be a matter of time given that the global estimates are 40 to 70% of the population hit.

Ian Bremmer:

And so if you're talking to people directly who say, we have no idea what we can do and they care, what would you tell them?

David Miliband:

I'd say go to the International Rescue Committee website rescue.org and learn about the conditions on the ground. I'd say we've launched an appeal with all the other leading NGOs, the Non-Governmental Organizations, the Global Emergency Response Coalition, to raise funds. I'd also say America has a proud tradition of welcoming refugees to the United States, but it's basically stopped for Syrians over the last three years. Over the course of this fiscal year, I think the figure is less than four hundred Syrians have been allowed into the country, even though there are six million Syrian refugees around the world. But those Syrians who are here need the support of Americans to help them integrate into American life. And the leaders of the country in the Senate, in Congress, in the White House need to know that Americans want to continue to be a haven for people in need because my goodness, the people who fled Syria are in need.

Ian Bremmer:

David Miliband. Thank you very much.

David Miliband:

Thank you very much.

Sammi:

I never saw a gun in my life. Guns in Syria was for, it was not allowed. Quite easy life.

David Miliband:

That's Sammi, a 27 year old Syrian refugee now living in Germany, remembering his days in Aleppo when it was still a vacation spot before the war.

Sammi:

[In] my society or my people, the Arab world, it is really important to have a family like their happiness when they got married and they have kids. And here, it's a bit different in here. What makes you happy is your happiness. Will I ever want to go back to Syria? I don't know. I don't think so. I have a group of friends in Syria [that] was really open minded with our stuff. We go drinking, but we hide ourselves. And that's the annoying part, it's just you need to hide yourself and then here I can do whatever I want, wherever I want.

[Interviewer]:

Is there anything that when you came here that everyone else thinks here is totally normal and you're like, what the heck?

Sammi:

The more shocking stuff are people are really stand for the lights. At midnight, I see people standing waiting for the green light and the streets are empty. You can see there's no cars for miles away. And it's like 2:22 AM. Just walk, there's nothing. In Syria, the people will go, they don't care if they saw a car [in a] couple of meters, they would run. I was born in 1993. I lived in Allepo for a couple of years and then I moved to Cyprus with my family. I lived there for 6 years and then I moved back to Allepo again.

That time was in war time. Within four month, we lived really quite normal life. After this four months was war, destruction, dead people in the streets. Near my house there was a garden and that garden become a graveyard for a lot of people. And garbage was disgusting, it was all over the place, smelled really bad. When there's no lights after midnight, you should not go there because the street will be full of rats. If you put a light in the street, you can see just the streets are moving with the rats.

The time over there was just surviving because there's no electricity. Then there's no water, there's no food. You only can buy maybe tomato or cucumber or those noodles. The first year was the hardest. I never saw a gun in my life. Guns in Syria was not allowed. Quite easy life, easy life. Then start this war and change everything. After that, we start to get used to that. The war, bullets everywhere. Everything was okay. Yeah, we need to live. We need to survive.

[Interviewer]:

Did you hear anything from the government during this time?

Sammi:

The government just says, "Yeah, don't worry about it. In three or four months, everything going to be okay." And that was the situation for five years. There's the checkpoints, as you see checkpoints for the government, see the checkpoints for ISIS. And sometimes you hear them talking to each other. And one of the time I heard, "Hey, where do you have any coffee left? We do not have any coffee. Can you send coffee for us?" And sometimes I hear, "Hey Kumar, look today we're going to hit you, but we are not going to do that, or just hide. Nobody can trust the news cause they don't tell the truth, the complete truth, at least. The only person that you can trust is the people that you meet. You talk them to the eyes and you understand that's truth. You know that is truth. Our situation made us to realize, okay, there's no going to be any good life in Aleppo anymore. It's really hard and we cannot handle it anymore.

So we decided just, yeah, it's time to go. So the idea was, we going to go to Turkey, stay in Instanbul and build a life over there, build a life. We was quite shocked because Istanbul was a really big city, a lot of people. And for Syrian to live in Istanbul, we learn the language, it's going to be really hard. You don't have any rights over there. So we decided, okay, let's go to Europe. We found the smuggler. So the smuggler can smuggle us from Turkey to Greece. We went just 10 minutes in the water and the Coast Guard from the Greek side, they came and rescue us. They give us some paper and then they told us, now you need to go to a place called Adumini. And from there you continue to another countries. And Adumini was like the 17,000 people. They stucked over there. And I was one of them.

After two months in Adumini, we start to hear there's people are finding smugglers and those smugglers can take you to another countries and I tried it seven times. Every time the cops catch you, you will go to a camp and from there they will kick you back to Adumini. And every time they see me, oh Sammi, you, you're back again. Okay, work. Take your food. They will give you food, they will give you water. And I'll see you tomorrow. Yeah, I will see you next time. The seventh try. We went to a small village. I paid, me and family, we paid and the smuggler. He said, okay, now you continue.

[Interviewer]:

And how did you know when you made it here that this was it?

Sammi:

The people I met in Adumini, they told me, if you are in Munich, just give us a call. And they're really quite nice people. And then I talked to my family like, Hey, this is the situation if you want to go, we can continue, but I really don't want to do that again. And then we said, yeah, just stay here. It's enough. And they said, yeah, okay. We're going to stay in here.

[Interviewer]:

What's next? Do you know?

Sammi:

The plan right now? I am going to continue studying as a social worker. It's nice to help people.

[Interviewer]:

What do you want people, Americans, to take away from your story?

Sammi:

I want Americans to be nicer to the new people that they come to their countries because even they are not from the same country doesn't mean they're really different from you.

Announcer:

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Announcer:

The GZERO World Podcast is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic. A private bank and wealth management company understands the value of service, safety and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit FirstRepublic.com to learn more.