How the AfD's rise could reshape German politics

In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's historic win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election and what it could mean for the country's political future.

The far-right party, considered extremist in many German states, came in first with 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its 2021 result. It is the first time since World War II that a far-right party has won a German state election outright. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the ruling party, came in at just 17.2%.

Ian explains the forces driving the AfD's surge: economic frustration, anger over immigration, and opposition to Germany's support for Ukraine. He also lays out the party's core positions, including ending Ukraine aid, lifting sanctions on Russia, leaving the EU, and rejecting what it views as ideologically driven policies from Berlin.

Though the AfD cannot form a government alone, Ian argues the longstanding firewall keeping other parties from working with them is likely to break. A weakened federal government and no national election until 2029 could give the AfD the runway to grow even larger.