Mounting pressure between US and Iran with no end in sight

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer argues that the war between the United States and Iran has entered a more dangerous phase, with both sides demonstrating they can sustain military and economic pressure without forcing the other to back down. The question is, will this standoff bring them back to the table before the conflict escalates further?

“This is a much worse situation than we were in a couple of weeks ago,” Ian says, though he notes the fighting remains “considerably more restrained than both sides have the capacity to engage militarily.”

Ian compares the standoff to President Trump’s earlier trade confrontation with China, arguing that Tehran, like Beijing, has shown it can impose costs Washington underestimated. “Iran will continue to engage in strikes that will shut down at a minimum the Strait of Hormuz,” he says, warning that the US cannot quickly protect Gulf infrastructure or shipping.

Despite the escalation, Ian says neither side can achieve a lasting victory through military force. “There’s no useful outcome coming through more military strikes,” he says, arguing that both Washington and Tehran will ultimately need to return to negotiations.