Why the US and Iran still can’t reach a deal

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer discusses the on-again off-again ceasefire between the United States and Iran and why it has failed to hold, arguing that both sides remain locked in a fundamental disagreement over who has the leverage.

While the US has shown restraint by avoiding a wider military escalation, Tehran continues to challenge the blockade and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“There’s a big inconsistent message here,” Ian says, pointing to the gap between threats of overwhelming force and the reality of a US strategy that remains cautious about further escalation.

Ian argues that the core problem is a clash of assumptions: Iran believes it can use control of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, while President Trump believes continued pressure will eventually force Tehran back to the negotiating table. “As long as that gap in understanding of who has the cards, who has the leverage persists, we’re going to continue to have fighting over the Strait,” Ian says.

Ian also looks at the Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea, arguing their actions are driven less by Iran and more by negotiations over money and influence with Saudi Arabia.