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FILE PHOTO: Chinese President Xi Jinping waves as he walks with U.S. President Joe Biden at Filoli estate on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023.
Biden and Xi catch up
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke for nearly two hours on Tuesday, in a wide-ranging conversation meant, as one senior official put it, to serve as a “check-in.” Both men agreed to periodic phone calls when they met last year in San Francisco in a bid to boost dialogue and stabilize relations.
So far, Washington and Beijing have avoided any major flare-up, but Biden and Xi had no shortage of risks and gripes to discuss. Biden emphasized his commitment to the status quo over Taiwan and urged Xi to respect freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where Chinese and Filipino vessels have had tense confrontations recently. He also expressed concern about China’s support for Russia’s military-industrial base. Xi, meanwhile, criticized “endless” US sanctions on the tech sector in an attempt to restrict Chinese access to militarily sensitive gear.
It wasn’t all complaints. The two leaders discussed recent progress on military-to-military communications, fentanyl trafficking, climate policy, and artificial intelligence, among other items. Cooperation on those less sensitive issues helps ease pressure on more intractable ones.
What’s next? The call comes just ahead of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s expected visit to China. Given Xi’s complaints today, she might be in for a less-than-relaxing trip, as she’s expected to press Beijing harder on “unfair” trade practices.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will also travel to China in the coming weeks. And we have our eye on the inauguration of Taiwanese President William Lai next month, when a vigorous Chinese display of strength could test relations with Washington, which would face pressure to back up Taipei.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaks during Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, November, 11, 2023.
Saudis in a tight spot
In Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (widely known as MBS) hosted a joint Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit, whose leaders on Saturday called for an immediate halt to Israel’s “barbaric” military assault in Gaza — stopping short of imposing political or economic sanctions on Israel.
Why the mixed message? The Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s military response in Gaza have put MBS in a bind. The king-in-waiting’s top priority remains the modernization of his kingdom and its economy. That’s the central purpose of his Vision 2030 project to diversify the Saudi economy away from its longtime dependence on oil exports for growth and revenue.
Before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Saudi officials were working toward a historic deal to normalize relations with Israel that could help stabilize business relations in the region and boost relations with the United States, a plan MBS hopes might include some form of US security guarantee and material support for a Saudi nuclear energy project.
The war in Gaza brought that bargaining to an abrupt halt. US and European officials want the Saudis to help finance and police a post-Hamas Gaza, but MBS has no interest in assuming those costs and risks. He also considers Hamas an ally of Islamist terrorist groups who threaten the Saudi government.
Some in the Muslim world, meanwhile, want the Saudis to punish Israel and its chief backer, the US, for the deaths of Palestinian civilians in Gaza by cutting oil exports that would push prices sharply higher. But major oil customer China, grappling with a serious economic slowdown, won’t be happy if the Saudis send near-term prices soaring. The delicate dance continues.