How Hezbollah in Lebanon became Iran's most powerful proxy force

Why has the US and Israel’s war with Iran spilled into Lebanon, nearly a thousand miles away? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks back at how Iran transformed Hezbollah from a small Shia militia into one of the world’s most powerful non-state military forces. Founded after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah gave Tehran a heavily armed proxy on Israel’s northern border, and a way to confront Israel without fighting the war itself.

For decades, Israel and Hezbollah maintained an uneasy deterrence. But after the October 7 attacks and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, Hezbollah opened a new front against Israel in support of Iran. Israel responded with a devastating campaign across southern Lebanon and Beirut, killing thousands and leaving entire neighborhoods in ruins.

Now, a fragile ceasefire depends on what happens to Hezbollah. The group refuses to surrender its weapons. Israel refuses to fully withdraw until it does. And Lebanon’s government is caught in the middle, trying to reclaim authority from a group more powerful than the state itself. If Hezbollah disarms, Iran could lose its most important regional proxy. But after four decades of conflict, removing one threat could just as easily create the next one.