Iran ceasefire frays

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says the Iran ceasefire is “holding on by a thread” as renewed strikes and proxy attacks undermine hopes for a broader deal.

Ian argues that Tehran believes it is negotiating from a position of strength and is using Hezbollah to create new pressure points. “The Iranians [are] more than happy to call the shots to get the Israelis to respond,” he says, pointing to recent strikes that triggered Israeli retaliation.

He also notes that both Iran and Israel have undermined President Donald Trump’s push for de-escalation. “This doesn't make Trump look very strong,” Ian says, arguing that neither side appears willing to follow Washington’s lead.

While Trump is seeking an off-ramp, Ian warns that another round of US strikes against Iran remains “a serious possibility” if negotiations fail to reopen shipping routes and end the blockade. Such a move, he says, would be “extremely dangerous” for both the region and the global economy.