The midterms: Races that could decide the Senate

If predictions hold, Democrats are on track to win a majority of seats in the House. The real battle today is for the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to hold a true majority, since Vice President JD Vance can cast a tie-breaking vote in their favor.

We’ve put together a cheat sheet of 11 races to watch, based on the Cook Political Report’s ratings: contests that lean Republican, contests that lean Democratic, and toss-ups. These races are no easy feats for Democrats. In Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, they’re gunning to flip seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. In Texas, a Democrat hasn’t been elected to the Senate since 1988 – the year before the Democratic nominee James Talarico was born. And in Kansas, voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in almost a century.

The key in these red states is what Republican-leaning voters who may have backed Trump in 2024 but are unhappy with the economy do next, Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter said on a recent episode of GZERO World. “If those voters stay home, that becomes problematic for Republicans,” she said. “If they show up and vote Democrat, that is where you start to see those red states move toward Democrats.”