Why Trump keeps backing down on Iran

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer examines the growing gap between President Trump’s threats to escalate against Iran and his reluctance to follow through with military action.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s critical infrastructure, but each time the stakes rise, the risks of Iranian retaliation against vulnerable Gulf energy and water infrastructure appear to pull him back. “The more meaningful thing is not that the ceasefire broke down, but that the Americans are very reluctant” to escalate, Ian says.

That restraint matters because Iran appears to believe it has the stronger hand in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. With the waterway still effectively impassable, Ian argues that Tehran has an incentive to hold out for a better deal and that Trump now faces a difficult choice: accept an agreement that “clearly looks like a loss” or continue absorbing the economic and political costs of a prolonged conflict.