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GOP underperforms and Dems surprise in US midterms
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on the US midterm elections.
So last night the US had their midterm elections, and the theme of the night is that Republicans underperformed, given the fundamentals of the race. Democrats had a pretty good night overall with Senate candidates outperforming their polling in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. And as of today, the results in both the Senate and the House are probably too close to call. The environment generally favors Republicans overall, and so they're likely to pick up a majority in the House, but that majority is going to be much smaller than most pundits were expecting as of yesterday before votes started to count.
In the Senate, the races are going to come down to several key states that have been on the radar for months now. Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Republicans are going to keep it really close and maybe even be favored in Nevada and Arizona. The Democratic candidate is favored, in which case it's all going to come down to a runoff in Georgia, just like it did in January of 2021, which would happen on December 6th.
Some big themes coming out of last night is that Democratic stars Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams both lost their gubernatorial bids in Georgia and Texas by pretty big margins. Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona, is already calling fraud there, and in part, her claims are going to be substantiated due to some polling machine errors that happened early in the day. Massachusetts elected their first female governor, Maryland elected the first Black governor, only the third black governor ever to be elected in the United States. And John Fetterman took down TV Celebrity Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania in a race that shows Democratic enthusiasm, and the importance of abortion as an issue in this election cycle.
Finally, one of the big storylines from the night is going to be the incredibly strong showing of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who won his race by double digit margins after barely sneaking by in 2018 in a wave year for Democrats. This shows how Florida has shifted during the pandemic to become a much more Republican state, and Ron DeSantis is the undisputed king of that state right now, setting them up very well to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential primary.
Biden's immigration play, failing students, eye on debates
With Midterm Matters, we are counting down to the US midterm elections on Nov. 8 by separating the signal from the noise on election-related news.
Biden’s pre-midterm immigration play
The number of Venezuelan migrants arriving at the US southern border has plummeted by 90% since President Joe Biden invoked Title 42 (a Trump-era law allowing the expulsion of asylum-seekers on public health grounds) earlier this month.
Noise: Biden positions himself as an advocate of a “fair and humane” immigration system and recently said that he is looking to speed up the processing of asylum applications.
Signal: But Biden is quietly clamping down on illegal migration. He recently reversed course and is building parts of Trump’s border wall and has agreed to hand over $1 billion for “border security.” While Democrats in border states like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly extol their party’s tough-on-immigration stance as they face off in close races, the White House is keeping it on the down-low so as not to isolate the left flank of the Democratic Party.
How will failing grades for US students add up?
Reading and math skills among US schoolchildren declined significantly over the past two years, according to a national educational assessment released Monday. The declines – only 26% of eighth graders and 36% of fourth graders ranked proficient – were the steepest in the assessment’s 30-year history. The results throw the academic impact of pandemic-driven school closures into sharp relief just days before the midterms.
Noise: The results will provide a messaging boost to candidates, particularly from the GOP, who are seeking the votes of moderate Democrat or Independent parents frustrated by the educational impact of school closures, which tended to be more extensive in Democrat-controlled districts.
Signal: "Red state vs. blue state” might not be the most useful lens for the data. Some states that were more cautious, such as California or Massachusetts, fared about as well as states like Texas or Florida that re-opened sooner. But across red/blue lines, the learning of students from poorer households, which generally have fewer resources to facilitate remote learning, were disproportionately harmed by school closures. This deepening inequality, and the debate about how to address it, will last beyond Nov. 8.
DeSantis' 2024 debate prep & Fetterman's health
This week features two big midterm debates. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis will trade blows on Monday with Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, a former congressman and governor. On Tuesday, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) faces his Republican rival for the Senate, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz.
Noise: DeSantis will likely cruise to a comfortable reelection as he prepares his 2024 White House run. Fetterman is also leading his rival, though by a smaller margin, with Oz taking flak for being a carpetbagger from New Jersey.
Signal: DeSantis might use the opportunity as debate prep against someone who won't be in the room but is 100% guaranteed to be watching: former President Donald Trump. Florida's governor is a rising GOP star, but he'll need serious debate chops to get in any zingers against Trump if he runs in 2024. Fetterman, for his part, hopes to look energetic next to the Trump-endorsed Oz. After all, he suffered a stroke in the middle of his primary campaign, and voters want to know whether he's healthy enough to be a senator.