Africa’s fountain of youth

Cape Verde, the second-smallest country ever to qualify for the World Cup, was knocked out this weekend after a stunning match that pushed Lionel Messi and Argentina into extra time. The loss marked the end of a remarkable run for the African archipelago nation, but it also put a spotlight on a part of the world whose demographic star is rising.

By 2050, one in four people on Earth is expected to be African, according to the United Nations. The continent's population is projected to grow from 1.6 billion today to 2.5 billion over the next quarter century – an extraordinary increase at a time when global population growth is slowing.

The population surge is thanks to Africa’s enormous youth population. Today, around 60% of Africans are under the age of 25. Compare that to Asia, home to the two most populous countries in the world, where 32% of people are below 25. As our Graphic Truth shows, the UN projects that by the next century it will be home to more young people than any other region, by a landslide.

While the share of young people in much of the world is declining, Africa is moving in the opposite direction. More than a third of its population will be under 25 by 2100, giving the continent by far the largest pool of young people of any continent.

The reason is straightforward: Africa is now the only region where fertility remains above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman (the birth rate required for countries to maintain their population size). Across Europe, North America, Latin America, and much of Asia, fertility has fallen well below that level, leading to slower population growth and decline.

Improved health care has also transformed the picture. Better access to medicine and stronger public health has sharply reduced infant and child mortality, allowing more children to survive into adulthood.

At the same time, the continent’s demographic dividends are far from guaranteed. Unemployment is staggeringly high in places like South Africa – the continent's most industrialized economy – sitting at about 32%. Poverty also remains widespread. In Nigeria, home to the largest population on the continent, roughly half the country lives in poverty. According to a report by the World Bank, economic growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, has not been strong enough to create jobs at scale.

Other pressures are building, too. Regional conflicts, including instability across the Sahel, heavy debt burdens, and external shocks – like disruptions to global energy and fertilizer markets caused by the Iran war – could hamper job creation and the overall economic outlook.

Africa is becoming the world’s demographic powerhouse. Whether it also becomes an economic one will depend on its ability to match the scale of its youth boom. If they can, young Africans could become the continent’s greatest competitive advantage in a world that is rapidly growing older.