Zelensky faces mounting election pressure
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky finds himself between a rock and a hard place after recently fired Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov publicly called for new elections on Tuesday. Zelensky declared martial law shortly after the war began, which bans elections for security reasons. Critics have said that Zelensky – now in his seventh year in office – has been in power for too long. Fedorov’s popularity gives his call extra sting: after Zelensky removed him as defense minister, Ukrainians took to the streets to protest his dismissal. Fedorov is closely linked to Ukraine’s battlefield drone prowess, and at just 35 years old, his rising political profile could make him a formidable challenger to Zelensky if, and when, Ukrainians return to the polls. Zelensky is unlikely to call elections in response to Fedorov alone, but if demands for a vote continue to grow, he may find them harder to ignore.
Gulf states look to expand overseas oil stockpiles
As the war in Iran drags on, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are looking farther afield for safe places to store oil. The two Gulf states have urged Japan to expand storage capacity tenfold from about 8 million barrels, and are reportedly holding similar talks with South Korea. Right now, much of the Gulf’s oil is stored locally, leaving exporters vulnerable to regional conflict and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE both have overland pipelines that bypass the strait and allow some exports to continue, these cannot meet demand from Asia. Before the war began, around 80% of the oil traveling via the strait was bound for Asia. While discussions are ongoing, Japan has a long history of storing foreign-owned oil after domestic oil consumption declined in the 2000s, leaving storage facilities with spare capacity to lease to other producers.
Iran reportedly eyeing European targets
Iran is reportedly considering strikes on US military targets in Europe if Washington attacks Iranian infrastructure, according to the Financial Times. Iran has missiles capable of reaching parts of southern and southeastern Europe and is apparently eyeing targets in Bulgaria and Cyprus. Bulgaria began allowing the US to use its Bezmer Air Base to support operations against Iran last month, while Cyprus reported in March that an Iranian-made drone struck a British base. An attack in Europe would mark a major escalation. However, experts say Iran’s medium-range missiles, including its Shahab series, could struggle to inflict damage at those distances, suggesting that Tehran aims to deter Washington more than signal an imminent attack. Last month, President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian infrastructure every time Iran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. For now, Tehran seems to be betting that threats to widen the war will discourage Washington from escalating it.
