Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday to take the first step in deciding the future of Latin America’s largest economy, and potentially the political direction of the entire continent.
The field is crowded, but two major players stand out: left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro. The race has effectively become a rematch in Brazil’s long-running battle between two political establishments.
Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula is likely to win outright Sunday. Brazil requires a presidential candidate to receive more than 50% of votes to avoid a runoff, and 12 candidates are competing, making it hard for anyone to reach a majority. Recent polls generally put Lula around 40% to 45% and Bolsonaro around 36% to 42%, with smaller candidates taking up the remainder. If no one clears 50%, the top two finishers will meet again on October 25 for a runoff election. Recent polling shows that a Lula-Bolsonaro matchup is essentially tied.
What are Brazilians voting on? Despite the international attention on Brazil’s political divide, voters are also worried about more immediate, everyday problems.
Crime remains a major concern. Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says voters are increasingly focused on crimes they encounter in the streets or see online every day, including theft and extortion.
Lula has emphasized an “intelligence-driven” approach to fighting powerful criminal groups such as the Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho, focusing on prevention and community policing. Bolsonaro has promised a harder-line strategy, including classifying major criminal factions as terrorist organizations, following suit with other right-wing leaders in Latin America.
Then there’s the economy. Unemployment and poverty rates have fallen during Lula’s term, but household debt remains a major source of frustration. Nearly 80% of Brazilian households are in debt and spend around 30% of their income on debt payments. In the campaign’s final days, Lula has tried to address this by unveiling a sweeping debt-relief program and banning online betting, which his government argues has exacerbated financial problems for Brazilian families.
What does this election mean for Latin America? Brazil is an outlier in a region that has swung sharply to the right in recent years. Many of Brazil's neighbors are now run by conservative governments, including Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Colombia. Bolsonaro’s victory would complete a remarkable conservative sweep among South America’s major economies, while another Lula term would leave Brazil as the remaining bastion of the Latin American left.
Both outcomes would impact relationships in the region. Bolsonaro would find natural partners among the continent’s conservative governments, while Lula would increasingly be surrounded by governments with which he has significant political differences. Lula and Argentina’s Milei have recently been in conflict, for example, damaging Brazil’s relationship with its third-largest trading partner.
And what about Washington? Here, the difference between a Lula and a Bolsonaro victory could be even sharper. Lula has increasingly framed the election as a battle for Brazilian sovereignty, particularly amid concerns about US involvement in the campaign, says Freeman. Lula, for example, has portrayed President Donald Trump’s support for Bolsonaro as foreign meddling.
Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has cultivated a much warmer relationship with Trump and his allies. His and his father’s connections to Washington have made the election one between two very different ideas about Brazil’s relationship with the US.
Marcelo Alvarenga, Brazil analyst at Eurasia Group, expects Bolsonaro to seek closer alignment with Washington on trade, critical minerals, and security – potentially joining US-led regional efforts targeting cartels and designating Brazil’s powerful gangs as terrorist organizations. But there would be limits, he says. On trade, a future Bolsonaro administration would be reluctant to break ties with China, given that China remains Brazil’s largest trading partner.
What to watch on Sunday. Unless one candidate dramatically outperforms the polls, Sunday’s vote will be less about choosing Brazil’s next president than setting the battlefield for the October 25 runoff.
First, watch the margin between Lula and Bolsonaro. The two are essentially tied in a hypothetical runoff, so even a modest first-round advantage could give one candidate momentum when voters return to the polls. Also watch turnout. Alvarenga says lower participation has historically hurt Lula more than the right.
Then watch smaller party candidates Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. The three are drawing voters who have rejected the Lula-Bolsonaro binary, making their supporters potentially important blocs once the field gets down to two. Cury has polled as high as 7% to 8% nationally, and recent polling found his voters splitting 44% for Bolsonaro and 32% for Lula in a runoff. Santos has positioned himself as a younger, anti-establishment alternative on the right, while Caiado, the governor of Goiás, offers a more established conservative alternative.
But their supporters are also less committed than Lula or Bolsonaro voters, Alvarenga says, meaning some could end up voting strategically for a Lula or Bolsonaro on Sunday. Whether their support holds – and where those voters ultimately go – will be an important indication of how much room Lula and Bolsonaro have to grow before the runoff.
Finally, watch the map. Bolsonaro is performing strongly in the state of São Paulo, while Lula strongholds remain in the northeast, where many households participate in social welfare programs championed by Lula. But the northeast is also worth keeping an eye on for signs of a longer-term shift: the rapid growth of evangelical Christianity has helped the right make inroads into what was once a reliable base for Lula and the left. If Bolsonaro can perform better than expected here this weekend, it could bode well for his chances in the runoff.
Sunday’s results will give us the clearest indication yet of how the runoff might unfold. But more broadly, they’ll also preview where Latin America’s biggest economy is headed over the long term.
