Brazil's razor-close presidential race
September 30, 2026
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ask ian
Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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In this ‘ask ian,’ Ian Bremmer breaks down Brazil's presidential election, a race too close to call heading into Sunday's vote.
Sunday's presidential election pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's incumbent, against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned former president. Both camps face corruption allegations, and the Brazilian Supreme Court has become entangled in a major bank fraud case tied to figures on both sides of the race.
Ian explains why the US has held back from directly intervening despite pressure from Bolsonaro's family, and places Brazil's election in the context of a broader rightward shift across Latin America, from Colombia to Argentina to Venezuela.
Ian also outlines what a Bolsonaro victory would and wouldn't change. A win could bring Brazil closer to the US on security cooperation, but it wouldn't change Brazil's enduring economic relationship with China, which is likely to remain Brazil's top trade partner regardless of the outcome.
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