In Beijing, could Trump trade away Taiwan?

On the surface, President Trump's high stakes Beijing Summit is about trade, tariffs, and technology. But if I've got my eye on something different, Taiwan, here's why.

Trump's Beijing Summit is the first by a US president in nearly a decade since, that's right. President Trump himself visited the Chinese Capitol in 2017 during his first term. This time he's brings some of America's most prominent CEOs in tow, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang. This is a full state visit and President Xi will be pulling out all the stops. The two leaders will visit ancient sites in Beijing and enjoy a grand state banquet thrown in Trump's honor. So on the surface, it looks like a very big deal. On substance, however, the summit is structured around easy wins. Both sides will announce purchase commitments and continue trade discussions and there'll be plenty of handshakes between Trump and his friend Xi.

But don't let the warm welcome or Trump's Silicon Valley entourage fool you. Unlike their first Beijing summit in 2017, Trump is coming into this meeting wanting Xi's help. Trump is over two months into a costly war with Iran, a key Chinese partner in the Middle East and one that has triggered a global energy shock and pulled US military resources away from Asia. He will likely ask Beijing to pressure Tehran to lift the blockade on the straight hormous, to come to the negotiation table in earnest and to get a nuclear deal done. That's a tall order and one that she is both unlikely and unwilling to fully deliver on. And yet the request will give Xi leverage and she knows it. And he very well might ask President Trump for something big in return, something as big as Taiwan. And this is where the summit could become a genuine game changer.

President Trump has already shown more flexibility than any US president on delaying arm sales and engaging with Beijing on the Taiwan issue. Could she push further and ask Trump to explicitly state his opposition to Taiwan independence? Would President Trump be willing to sacrifice a small Island nation thousands of miles away for a major breakthrough in his Iran quagmire? Let me be crystal clear. This remains quite unlikely. The United States has maintained a complex network of diplomatic and military support for Taiwan for decades. But we've also seen how much respect President Trump has for diplomatic norms. If President Trump agrees to a major concession on Taiwan, it will be the single most consequential outcome of the entire summit, more significant than any soybeans, plains, chips, or any of the other nominally headline issues of the Beijing meeting.