The global geography of terrorism is shifting

In the aftermath of the September 11th attacks, the global fight against terrorism was overwhelmingly focused on the Middle East. Al-Qaeda had found sanctuary under the Taliban, and the United States was about to embark on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that would define the War on Terror for the next two decades. Twenty-five years later, the geography of terrorism looks very different.

South Asia also remains a major hub of terrorism, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but the most dramatic shift in the number of terrorist attacks has been toward sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of Boko Haram since 2009 in northeastern Nigeria helped turn the Sahel into a hot spot of terrorism.

Al-Qaeda affiliates have established roots in the region through militants pushed south from Algeria, eventually building relationships with local armed groups. ISIS followed a similar model, encouraging existing organizations to pledge allegiance to its global movement. Boko Haram did so in 2015, giving rise to ISIS’s “West Africa Province.”

The Sahel proved to be a fertile ground for insurgency. Weak governments and porous borders left huge areas with little state presence, while poverty, sectarian tensions, corruption, and abuses by security forces provided grievances extremists could exploit. A wave of military coups has further weakened institutions, and the withdrawal of French and other Western forces has created new security vacuums that military governments have struggled to fill.

The terrorist threat that defined the beginning of the 21st century hasn’t disappeared. But the conditions that allow it to thrive, and the places where those conditions exist, have changed significantly.