What We’re Watching: Two “middle powers” make deals, Power struggle in Senegal, US exploring “friendly takeover” of Cuba

Canada-India relations continue to recover

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney struck a series of deals during a meeting in New Delhi on Monday, including a 10-year nuclear energy deal under which Canada will provide India with uranium. The two sides also agreed to finalize a free trade deal by year’s end. Three years ago, none of this would have been remotely possible after Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar was assassinated in a highly-coordinated attack just outside Vancouver. Then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” linking New Delhi to the hit. However, with the US undermining the world order it led for decades, bothcountries have urged “middle powers” to band together. The rubber is now meeting the road.

Power struggle unfolding in Senegal

Senegal is facing political turmoil as Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has threatened to take his party out of government and into opposition if President Bassirou Faye accepts a controversial IMF debt restructuring plan. The removal of Sonko's PASTEF party would functionally leave Faye without a party. The removal of Sonko's PASTEF party would functionally leave Faye without a party. Senegal’s debt has ballooned from 78% in 2023 to 132% of its GDP, after it was revealed that the previous government had hidden debt. Meanwhile, unrest has boiled on university campuses over undelivered financial aid payments, and growing feelings of betrayal by Sonko’s PASTEF party, which they protested in the streets to bring into power two years ago. Since then, there has been a growing power struggle between the country’s two leaders as they struggle to contain the dual crises, with Sonko holding the upper hand because of his control over their political party.

France to boost its nuclear arsenal

President Emmanuel Macronhas pledged to build more nuclear weapons and offered to deploy them on European allies’ territory. The latter would mark the first time the country’s nuclear warheads would be moved outside of France. The move comes amid rising doubts about the defense commitments of the US, which has stationed its own troops and nuclear weapons in Europe for decades. France currently has about 300 nuclear warheads – about half as many as China – while the arsenals of the US and Russia are more than ten times as large. Macron has argued for years that Europe should develop better independent defense capabilities, but Trump 2.0 has accelerated those talks, which are now ongoing between Paris and half a dozen other European countries, including Germany and Poland. Is this the “champagne” of European defense umbrellas? Anywhere else, it would simply be “sparkling nuclear deterrence.”