Trump mulls next move in Iran, US allows Russian tanker to reach Cuba, Myanmar’s military coup leader set to become president

Donald Trump threatens to “take the oil” in Iran

The US president made the comments to the Financial Times on Sunday, just as hundreds of US Special Operations troops arrived in the Middle East ahead of a possible mission to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. (As it happens, Trump has been thinking of doing this for nearly 40 years.) Trump is also weighing an operation to locate and remove nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran’s highly-enriched uranium, the heart of the country’s nuclear program. Either move would require a risky ground invasion, and Iran has pledged to set any US troops “on fire.” Still, Trump appeared to leave the door open to negotiations with Tehran, citing Iran’s decision to allow more oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that progress is being made. Markets are still worried – crude prices touched $116/barrel at one point on Monday, the highest level in four years.

US allows Russian oil tanker to break Cuba blockade

Speaking of oil tankers getting through, the US on Monday allowed a Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of Russian crude to reach Cuba. A curious move given that the US has maintained a de facto blockade of the island for more than three months as the White House pressures Havana to make a “deal.” The ship’s arrival will provide some relief for Cuba, which has been suffering daily power cuts, mounting piles of trash, and limited health care as the island’s energy reserves dwindle. But the real intrigue is geopolitical: in December, Washington intercepted a tanker that was bringing Venezuelan oil to Cuba, and another in February that was carrying crude from Colombia. So why did it allow the Russian tanker through?

Myanmar’s military chief to become president – but is it a risky move?

Min Aung Hlaing,the junta chief who led the 2021 military coup, has been nominated by Myanmar’s parliament to become president. The move comes after December and January elections that were widely viewed as a sham, with many popular parties banned and large segments of the country unable to vote due to the ongoing civil war between the government and an array of resistance and opposition militias. There is a problem for Min Aung Hlaing, though: to become president, he must formally relinquish his role as military commander, posing a risk to his control of the army. It won’t help that some senior commanders are reportedly unhappy with the incoming president’s leadership. To mitigate any potential threats to his power, the 69-year-old created a new council that will allow him to control both civilian and military affairs at once.