All across Latin America, right-wing leaders have been consolidating their power.
In Argentina, Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza had a superb midterm election night last October, allowing the president to pass major labor reforms in March. Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa eased to reelection last year by a handsome margin. El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele no longer has term limits, meaning the self-dubbed “world’s coolest dictator” could rule until his death.
What’s more, left-wing leaders are losing theirs. In Chile, right-wing José Antonio Kast replaced socialist Gabriel Boric in March, and has already started implementing his anti-immigrant agenda. In Bolivia, where socialists had ruled for two decades, voters last year opted instead for center-right Rodrigo Paz to be their leader.
The principal reason for Latin America’s right turn has been security. After the “pink tide” at the turn of the 21st century, in which left-leaning candidates swept to power across the region, voters became fed up with the rise of organized crime and sought more direct ways to deal with the issue. Gone was the policy of “abrazos, no balazos,” (hugs, not bullets), used by Mexico’s former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. In came the superprisons used by Bukele; Costa Rica started building one last year, too.
But with another batch of elections coming this year and next, the right’s winning streak could be under threat.
Colombia, the fourth-largest economy in Latin America, provides the first test. Left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, who is the anointed successor of the outgoing, term-limited President Gustavo Petro, leads polls for the first round of the presidential election, which takes place May 31. However, that election will go to a June 21 runoff assuming – as polls suggest – no candidate wins a majority of votes, so his chances depend on whether he faces far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right Paloma Valencia, according to Eurasia Group’s Latin America director Maria Luisa Puig.
“The right’s chances [in Colombia] hinge on who makes it to a likely June runoff against Cepeda,” said Puig. “Valencia would probably be more competitive against Cepeda compared to de la Espriella given her ability to attract both moderate and right-wing voters.”
Unlike in past elections, security isn’t the principal concern for Colombians, according to Colombia Risk Analysis director Sergio Guzmán, even as violent crime has been rising in the country over the last few years.
“I wouldn’t say that [security] is the dominant reason that is driving Colombians to the polls,” Guzmán told GZERO. “We’re also concerned about corruption, health care, education, the economy, and the ongoing fiscal deficit.”
After Colombia, two of the most dominant players in Latin America are holding votes in the ensuing 18 months. In Brazil, liberal President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will seek reelection in October – he is “slightly favored” to defeat right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, according to Eurasia Group’s Latin America expert Risa Grais-Targow. Then in 2027, the poster boy of Latin America’s right, Argentina’s Milei, will bid to overcome a slowing economy and win reelection.
Complicating the challenge for right-wing leaders in Latin America is US President Donald Trump. His tariff policies and the war in Iran have dampened Trump’s image in parts of the Western Hemisphere, prompting left-wing leaders like Petro and Lula to use him as something of a foil. What’s more, the US president has indicated that he’s ready to conduct more action across Latin America, after his administration seized Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in January. The US Justice Department is reportedly investigating Colombia’s Petro, while the American military has ramped up its surveillance activity over Cuba.
“Trump isn’t necessarily done with how he intervenes in Latin America,” said Guzmán.
Whether this boosts right-wing hopes in Latin America, or creates further headaches, is up for debate. For now, all eyes in Latin America are on Colombia.
For a video explainer, watch this report from GZERO’s Zac Weisz.
