Brazil's COP30 is all about 'climate triage'

At COP30–the world's largest climate conference–in Brazil, the conversation isn't about preventing the worst of climate change, but stopping the bleeding.

That's what Eurasia Group's Shari Friedman is hearing on the ground, but it's a message that the United Staes is ignoring, given the Trump administration's refusal to send a delegation to the conference for the first time in 30 years.

Shari Friedman:

Instead of getting 198 countries, well, 197 without the United States, to move together on collective action, this COP has broken things out into smaller coalitions. These coalitions are organized around specific action items, like forestry or reducing fossil fuels or carbon markets. It's like moving from multilateralism into minilateralism. And outside of the negotiating rooms is a lot of participation from sub-national, state, and local governments. And this is particularly important for the United States who, for the first time since the beginning of COPs, has not sent a delegation.

So will this minilateralism work? In some cases, these initiatives will get traction. They're laying down the framework for collaboration on very important initiatives. And more importantly, Brazil is avoiding a breakdown of these talks. But when you hear about the impact to your economy, to the asthmatic kids in the local school, to your economy that might be based on agriculture, then the impacts become real. And these are the conversations that the sub-national governments bring to the conversations in the hallway and on the panels. This COP may not achieve the results that were originally intended, but given the hand it was dealt, Brazil made a key pivot that will at least keep the conversation going and, at best, may create some real action.