Much like Jair Bolsonaro’s beloved Seleção, which lost its soccer match to Argentina this week, the former Brazilian president has reason to be concerned about his own defensive strategy. On Wednesday, the country’s Supreme Court ordered him to stand trial for his alleged efforts to overturn the last election. The ruling raises the prospect of the 70-year-old ending up behind bars and imperils his hopes of running for office in 2026.
The case at hand: Brazil’s Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro and 33 others in February with attempting a coup on Jan. 8, 2023, and accused them of forging a plot to poison President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and kill a Supreme Court justice. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.
It is “highly likely” that the court will also find Bolsonaro guilty, said Eurasia Group Managing Director Chris Garman, but that wouldn’t stop him from holding significant sway at the next election in 2026.
“From an electoral point of view, he will remain a kingmaker on the right for the 2026 presidential election,” said Garman. “Polls consistently show his public support hasn’t dropped since the last presidential election, and he will be seen as a martyr among the conservative voters who will agree with claims he is being politically persecuted.”