India’s ruling party loses election in stronghold, South Africa goes to court over land law, Hormuz deal reportedly near

Is India’s “Cockroach” party infestation spreading?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost a by-election for a seat in the eastern state of Bihar that it held for three decades. The winner, head of a new local opposition party called Jan Suraaj (Good Governance), focused on unemployment, education, and other issues important to younger voters. Coming just days after mass protests led by the Gen-Z “Cockroach Party” movement withstood a violent crackdown and unexpectedly forced out India’s education minister, the Bihar result offers an early data point for how the new “Cockroach vibes” may affect the BJP’s grip on power. The Cockroach movement is not, itself, a political party — but its success has opened the way for opposition parties to capitalize on broad youth frustrations with the government’s failure to translate stunning GDP growth into more opportunities for good jobs and social mobility.

Land reform lawsuit tests South Africa’s uneasy coalition

On Monday, South Africa’s second-largest political party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), led an effort with lobbyists to sue the government over a land seizure law that took effect last year. The controversial Expropriation Act allows the state to seize private land for public use, and, under some circumstances, without compensation. Land ownership remains a heated issue in South Africa: even 30 years after the end of apartheid, over 70% of private land is owned by white South Africans, who make up just 7% of the population. Last year, US President Donald Trump and South African-born Elon Musk claimed the law targets white farmers, using it to justify a US refugee program for white South Africans. The lawsuit will also test the uneasy governing coalition between the DA, traditionally backed by white South Africans, and the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since 1994 but seen its political dominance weaken in recent years.

A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be close

The US, Oman, and Iran are reportedly nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement, which could be announced as soon as this afternoon, potentially includes free passage for ships through the waterway for 60 days while negotiations continue over Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. But the deal comes together after Trump backed away from staging what he described as “the biggest attack since World War II” over the weekend when talks started progressing. Notably, the US may be limited in its leverage at the negotiating table these days, as stockpiles of key air defense systems are reportedly significantly depleted. But as always, nothing is final until the ink is dry: just weeks ago, the sides appeared close to a deal to reopen the Strait only for Iran to resume strikes on ships.