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Modi defies gravity

It's been a rough few months for India, even by the standards of 2020. Its economy was slowing even before COVID became a household word. A controversial citizenship law provoked deadly unrest in India's largest cities.

Then, when coronavirus infections began to spike in early spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a lockdown that gave 1.3 billion Indians just four hours to find a place to shelter in place for 21 days. The resulting chaos inflicted even more damage on India's economy. Amid the chaos, massive crowds of people on the move across the country probably accelerated the spread of infection.

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Will Prime Minister Modi win India's election?

Indian election results are out on Thursday. How will PM Modi's party fare?

They going to do very well. Certainly going to take over government again. Whether or not it's by themselves or in coalition. I suspect the latter. What does that mean? It means a more divided India. That also means more money on infrastructure, more economic reform. India politically is as viscerally tearing itself apart as the United States or say, Brazil right now. I wish that wasn't the case.

Can the Austrian PM survive "Ibiza-gate"?

Yes, I suspect that the centre right is going to end up with more popularity. Squeezing out the big mistake. The scandal dropped by the far right Freedom Party. Kind of like what's happening in Germany right now as the Alternatives For Deutschland is getting squeezed by the centre right. That is actually happening to a number of populist parties across Europe.

Can Huawei survive the dispute with the United States?

They can survive, but I don't think they're going to be globally dominant. I think this hit is not only going to hurt their balance sheet, but it also means a lot of American allies are going to be very careful before they decide they want to work with 5G. They were not in that direction beforehand. They were saying, "oh yeah, it's cheaper, it's going to roll out faster." Now they realized the Americans mean business. The real question is: can the trade talks survive the Huawei scandal? And right now. That is in the balance getting harder to pull it off.

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