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Activists from the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP) are staging a protest after the central government notified the rules for the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, in Nagaon District, Assam, India, on March 11, 2024.
India enacts fraught new citizenship law ahead of election
The Indian government implemented a new citizenship law on Monday after over four years of delay that critics say may be used to discriminate against the country’s large Muslim minority.
What’s the new law? The amendment extends Indian citizenship to Hindus, Parsis, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, and Christians who moved to India from Pakistan, Afghanistan, or Bangladesh before Dec. 31, 2014.
Supporters say the law is meant to help members of those faiths escape persecution in their countries of origin, but critics worry it is one step of a two-part plan. In combination with a proposed national register of citizens, they say this law could be used to render Muslims stateless. When the law was first passed in 2019, it triggered months of protests and riots that left dozens dead and hundreds injured, which is why the government waited years to implement it.
Why now? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has never looked stronger, and he’s aiming to fire up Hindu nationalist sentiment ahead of elections this spring. Modi is expected to win comfortably, but he’s aiming to run up his party’s vote count as high as possible and solidify its long-term prospects.
To that end, earlier this year he opened a controversial Hindu temple on the grounds of a former mosque in a massive symbolic victory, which had been the site of violent confrontation for over a century. And to woo less spiritually motivated voters, Modi announced he was spending $15 billion on infrastructure in the south and east, where he hopes to make inroads into opposition strongholds.
What does democracy look like in Modi's India?
India's population recently surpassed China's and in the most populous country on earth, nothing is simple. But for the world's largest democracy, democracy isn't so simple, either. India has had its fair share of problems, from the persecution of minority groups, to a clamping down on press freedom, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has faced stiff criticism from the West. But during his recent trip to the White House, President Biden still rolled out the red carpet and welcomed him with open arms. The question remains: What does a Modi led India look like?
Our guest this week is award-winning broadcast journalist and Washington Post columnist Barkha Dutt, who has a message for both DC and Delhi: "For the critics in America, let India battle this out. It'll probably be more productive. Don't be judgy. Talk to us as an equal. For the Modi government, you can't hide from this question. You need to start engaging with it. It's a real question, and you have to engage with the criticism that is brought to your door on this question."
Tune in to “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer” on US public television to watch the full interview. Check local listings.
Indian PM Narendra Modi along with Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath during the inaugural ceremony of Purvanchal Expressway on November 16, 2021 in Sultanpur.
Indian state elections will test Modi’s strength
Indian voters will go to the polls starting February 10 for elections in five states including Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous. The results will be declared on March 10, and have important implications for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s agenda and the 2024 general elections. We spoke to Eurasia Group expert Diwakar Jhurani to get a better sense of what to watch for.
What are the stakes for Modi?
About 280 million Indians will vote to elect five state governments in February and March. Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party currently governs in all but one of these, so the elections will test Modi’s ability to secure votes for state leaders who aren’t as popular as he is.
The elections in Uttar Pradesh — which accounts for 15% of the seats in the national parliament — are the most important for Modi. While the prime minister hails from Gujarat state, he represents Uttar Pradesh in parliament. The BJP won a landslide victory (306 out of 403 seats in the state legislature) in 2017 thanks to Modi’s popularity and a divided opposition, and the party capitalized on this victory by appointing a polarizing figure, Yogi Adityanath, as chief minister. This year, Modi has put his weight behind Yogi’s reelection and a platform focused on economic development, jobs, and rule of law in the state.
The other states holding elections are Punjab, Goa, Manipur, and Uttarakhand. All but Punjab currently have BJP-led governments. While these are less politically important than Uttar Pradesh, the BJP will want to maintain control of them to sustain its national dominance — 19 of 31 Indian states and union territories that vote for state governments are currently ruled by the BJP and its partners.
What are the main issues in these elections?
Local concerns such as access to basic public goods and services, job creation, infrastructure, and the quality of governance are the most important in state elections. Historical data suggest that Indian voters tend to punish incumbents over dissatisfaction with these issues. Given that the BJP is in power in four of the five states holding elections, the opposition parties are feeling upbeat about their chances.
The BJP, however, is touting the success of welfare programs such as funding for toilets, affordable housing, and cooking gas. It is also bragging that its management of the pandemic has been more effective than that of Western countries. And Modi is deploying his “double engine” slogan, claiming that BJP governments at both the national and state levels will double the speed of development.
How will the outcome affect Modi and national politics?
These upcoming state-level contests will set the mood for the next two years ahead of the 2024 general elections. Electoral feedback matters to Modi’s governance style. A solid BJP performance — especially in Uttar Pradesh — would give him the momentum to build on an economic agenda on opening markets, liberalizing trade, and strengthening institutions. The more confident he feels, the more he will focus on these priorities. A weak showing, especially in Uttar Pradesh, would encourage Modi to turn toward populism and divisive identity politics to rally his base.
In Uttar Pradesh, most opinion polls are predicting a BJP victory, but the party will likely lose some seats after winning 76% of the total in 2017. Anything short of a BJP majority (ensuring a BJP chief minister) would be a major setback for Modi.
However, state election results will not necessarily be a leading indicator of Modi’s performance in 2024. Many voters who vote for regional parties in state elections typically end up voting for Modi’s BJP in national elections. But state electoral patterns will help understand how Modi prepares for 2024 and give clues about his agenda in the coming months.
What are the biggest longer-term threats to the BJP’s dominance?
The party’s strength is based on appeals to nationalism and religious identity and promises of competent governance delivered by a leader (Modi) who is perceived to be committed and incorruptible. Factors that have influenced elections in the past such as inflation, economic stagnation, and even joblessness have become less important at the national level. Yet the BJP’s formula doesn’t always work at the state level and credible regional leaders have shown themselves capable of giving the BJP a beating in elections held in states such as West Bengal, Rajasthan, or Delhi.
So, political alliances that challenge BJP on at least two of the three elements of its formula and have a credible face at the national level can give it a run for its money. Another chink in the BJP’s armor is the lack of good candidates to succeed Modi. Hence, a face from the opposition who appears a more natural successor to Modi than someone from the BJP may pose a threat to the BJP once Modi approaches retirement in the medium term.