Three takeaways from the US midterm elections

In the end, the long-predicted “blue wave” turned into a tsunami as the Democrats, harnessing widespread frustrations over high living costs, opposition to the war in Iran, and misgivings about Trump’s deportation policies, swept back to power on Capitol Hill.

Team Blue reclaimed control not only of the House of Representatives, but the Senate too. Some of the Democrats’ wins were true stunners: until last night, neither Texas nor South Carolina had elected a Democratic senator since the 1990s. Kansas hadn’t done it since the 1920s.

What lessons will each party draw from the drubbing? And how might the outcome affect the rest of the world? Let’s take a look at what we can expect in the final two years of Trump’s presidency.

What does it mean for Republicans?

As the dust settles, a handful of Republicans have begun pointing fingers at the president for a night of bruising losses. “It’s on him,” one Republican lobbyist in Texas told the BBC. Across the country, voters rejected Trump’s hand-picked candidates in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Michigan. Senate seats in Republican strongholds like Kansas, which hadn’t voted for a Democrat in nearly a century, flipped. Trump told voters to pretend he was on the ballot, and, evidently, they did.

For the party, the midterms mark a new era. Trump, the kingmaker of Republican politics for the last decade, has proved unpopular. Sticking by his side over his next two years in office could hamper their own political ambitions down the line. Because of this, as Ian Bremmer predicted in a recent Quick Take, Republicans will start planning the party’s future without him.

But for members of Trump’s administration with possible 2028 ambitions, that’s a tricky needle to thread. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JDVance, whose former Ohio Senate seat flipped to Democrat Sherrod Brown, have two more years to serve at Trump’s side. They may not be able to daylight between themselves and the president yet, despite Trump’s unpopularity. This morning, for example, Vance blamed Republicans’ losses on the hugely unpopular war in Iran – rather than Trump’s decision to lead the country into it.

What does this mean for Democrats?

Democrats are riding high after last night, but now comes the hard part: delivering on their promises. That won’t be easy. Democrats will have to navigate deep divisions within their own party. According to a new Politico poll, 61% of self-described progressive democrats want the party to tackle a more ambitious agenda, while only 35% of self-described moderates agree. While some centrists may be willing to work across the aisle, progressives could draw a hard line when it comes to aid to Israel and universal health care. And that’s before legislation gets to Trump, who has vowed to become “Mr. Veto,” making it difficult to advance priorities like reversing Medicaid cuts, ending tariff battles, and constraining Trump’s war in Iran.

Now, eyes are already turning toward 2028, and the bigger question may be what lessons Democrats take from this election. Running primarily on opposition to Trump failed to resonate with voters two years ago, but this time, a message focused on economic populism appears to have struck a chord across the country. Democrats now face a choice: return to the party’s familiar playbook of the past decade, or chart a new course built around the issues that propelled them to victory. And with no clear party leader, those divisions between the party’s progressive and centrist wings could deepen as Democrats begin a contentious battle over their future.

What does it mean for the rest of the world?

The one area where the Democrats’ sweeping victory will have the least impact is the one that affects the rest of the world most: US foreign policy. US presidents enjoy broad freedom of action on trade, sanctions, and war — with minimal effective oversight from Congress. While Capitol Hill can try to restrain the president by withholding funding appropriations or holding hearings, the Democrats lack a veto-proof majority in both houses, undermining their leverage over the White House.

That leaves Trump with a relatively free hand to shape his own legacy on the world stage for two more years. Two key areas will immediately come into focus: will he continue pressuring Europe and Ukraine to accept a peace deal that normalizes relations with Russia? Will he reignite the Iran war alongside Israel in order to “finish the job” of either destroying Tehran’s nuclear program or changing the regime? Unlike Vance and 2028 hopefuls in his administration, Trump never has to face voters directly again. Trump also needs to define a timeline for elections in Venezuela and steer the delicate trade detente with China.