Hungarians go to the polls on April 12, and all signs are pointing to a historic defeat for Viktor Orbán, the country's strongman populist leader for the past 16 years and President Trump's closest European ally. But losing an election is one thing, says Eurasia Group's Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman. Admitting defeat is another.

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In Iran, a shooting war has given way to a fragile ceasefire and a high-stakes standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, with the global economy hanging in the balance. Iran now holds effective control over a critical oil chokepoint, says Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew, while the US enforces its own blockade to try to squeeze Iran.