If Democrats want to take control of the Senate in November, winning Michigan is a must. Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who pulled off a razor-thin victory in last month’s primary, will face Republican Sen. Mike Rogers, and the race is widely considered a toss-up. The biggest risk for El-Sayed: a crucial bloc within the state’s Democratic electorate — Black voters — isn’t sold on him.
El-Sayed’s victory over a well-funded, establishment-backed rival bolstered the argument from progressives and democratic socialists that they can mobilize voters. El-Sayed is not a democratic socialist, though he has drawn support from Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) members. However, Michigan’s Black Democrats largely backed his opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, the establishment candidate. One survey found that 69% of Black Democratic voters supported Stevens, compared with 37% for El-Sayed. In a general election this close, El-Sayed will need strong Black turnout in November to prevail.
This dynamic extends beyond Michigan. Zohran Mamdani, the New York City mayor whose victory last year energized progressives, garnered just 26% support among Black voters in majority-Black precincts, compared with 59% for his opponent, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Earlier this month in Missouri, Rep. Wesley Bell, a moderate backed by the Congressional Black Caucus, easily fended off a primary challenge from democratic socialist and former Rep. Cori Bush in a St. Louis district with a plurality of Black voters. And last week in Wisconsin, Democratic centrist David Crowley defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary, with strong support from older Black voters.
Polls also don’t show much enthusiasm among Black voters. At the national level, surveys show that most Black voters simply don’t know what to make of the DSA.
Taken together, these trends point to a potential challenge for the Democratic Party’s progressive and democratic socialist wing as it gains influence this year: Black voters, a crucial Democratic constituency, are not necessarily moving with it.
A long-standing model of Black politics. Economic strain and affordability are the top concerns for Black voters today, as they are for much of the electorate — but those concerns are not new. Black household wealth, for example, still trails far behind that of white households, despite major gains in civil and political rights.
For decades, many Black Americans viewed the Democratic Party as an avenue for economic and political empowerment. Jesse Jackson’s historic presidential campaigns in the 1980s brought millions of new Black voters into Democratic politics, linking the civil rights movement’s push for political power to a message of economic advancement. That model still resonates with many Black voters, particularly older ones, who also post some of the highest voter turnout rates in the country.
That history also helps explain why many Black voters tend to favor establishment Democrats. For voters who see the party as an institution through which Black Americans have built political power, candidates who openly challenge that institution can be a tougher sell.
A famous example came in 2020, when Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, widely seen as a kingmaker in Democratic politics, rallied Black voters behind Joe Biden just before the state’s primary. His support revived Biden’s struggling campaign and helped him overtake Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Progressives can also struggle with how they engage Black voters, according to Basil Smikle, a Democratic strategist and former executive director of the New York State Democratic Party. “The DSA and progressives tend to flatten the Black vote,” he says. “They often privilege class over race, instead of really discussing how important the intersection of that is.”
El-Sayed, like many progressives, has made affordability and the cost of living central to his campaign. But Smikle argues that the broader progressive movement risks treating Black voters as a uniformly working-class constituency, when many are also looking for policies that create opportunities to build wealth and move up the economic ladder.
But the Democratic establishment has faced its own disconnect with Black voters. In his 2024 victory, President Donald Trump nearly doubled his share of support among Black voters from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024. Melik Abdul, a Republican strategist, attributes some of that shift to frustration with Democrats and a sense that economic gains weren’t translating into broader prosperity. Democrats touted a strong stock market, cooling inflation, and falling unemployment on the campaign trail, but those indicators didn’t align with voters’ lived experiences.
“That 15% wasn’t because people were so in love with Donald Trump,” Abdul says. “There are still pockets of us who aren’t [doing well]. That concern will be the case in every single election.”
The shift was especially pronounced among younger Black men, who may not view empowerment through Democratic politics in the same way as older generations. Still, they represent a relatively small slice of the Democratic coalition: 83% of Black voters backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with 43% of white voters.
For now, Black voters remain a loyal Democratic constituency, and progressives need that support while candidates like El-Sayed face competitive elections. So far, many appear unconvinced. One exception is worth watching: On Tuesday, Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist state lawmaker with limited campaign funding, defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman in a Florida Senate primary after organizing Black voters in rural, often overlooked parts of northern Florida. If the movement wants a road map to Black voters, Nixon’s approach might offer one.
