Costa Rica’s crime-time election

In yet another Latin American election shaped by concerns about security and violence, Costa Ricans will vote for president this Sunday.

Leading the polls with roughly 40% support is conservative candidate Laura Fernández, the preferred successor and former chief of staff of current leader Rodrigo Chaves, who is popular but cannot run again due to term limits.

Fernández, who faces a fragmented field of more than a dozen challengers, has pledged to expand Chaves’ tough-on-crime policies. She openly admires the popular but controversial iron-fisted approach of Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele.

That message has resonated with Costa Rican voters. More than 40% say crime is their biggest concern, dwarfing all other issues in a recent opinion survey by the University of Costa Rica.

And it’s not hard to see why. Murder rates in formerly tranquil Costa Rica have rocketed to record highs in recent years, driven largely by turf wars among cartels vying for dominance over port facilities that are used to export soaring South American cocaine output to voracious markets in Europe and the US.

What to watch: If Fernández surpasses 40% of the vote in the first round, she’ll win outright, avoiding a runoff in April. She is also hoping to win a supermajority in the country’s 57-seat legislature, which would enable her to make constitutional changes concerning basic rights or term limits.

The bigger picture: Across Latin America, soaring crime – linked largely to the increased production and trafficking of cocaine – is boosting the popularity of politicians who promise strong crackdowns. Right-wing law-and-order candidates have already won recent elections in Ecuador and Chile. Major regional powers like Colombia and Brazil head to the polls later this year.

In addition, the issue has drawn the attention of US President Donald Trump, who has threatened wider military interventions in the region to root out cartels.