Iran ups the ante on oil threats, Chile’s new president inaugurated, Russia tries to save Orbán’s re-election bid

US and allies desperately try to cool frightened oil markets

Iran has been upping its threats against the world’s oil supply, striking at least one cargo ship yesterday and reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway near Iran through which 20% of global oil supply passes. Its military command even suggested that the world should prepare for prices of $200 per barrel. Seeking to ease supply concerns and cool prices, the International Energy Agency confirmed on Wednesday that its 32 members – which include the United States – would collectively release 400 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves. This would be more than double the previous record set in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The massive drawdown suggests that these countries believe the Strait will remain mostly closed for a while yet.

Chile to swear in right-wing president in major shift

José Kast, an ultraconservative elected in December on pledges to deregulate the economy, slash immigration, and crack down on crime, takes control today of South America’s fourth-largest economy. The political pendulum swing is a dizzying one — Kast succeeds the tumultuous term of socialist Gabriel Boric — reflecting a broader rightward trend in Latin America these days. But Kast steps into the job at a trying time: Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, faces huge economic uncertainties tied to the war in Iran, which has pushed up oil prices and set inflationary fears soaring. The Chilean peso, which had gained roughly 10% in the last six months prior to the US and Israel strikes on Iran, has already lost half of that momentum since the conflict began.

Russia reportedly launches disinformation campaign in Hungary’s election

Hungarians will cast their votes on April 12 in an election broadly regarded as the greatest challenge to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's leadership since he assumed power in 2010.Péter Magyar, who heads the oppositionist Tisza Party, leads current polling against Orbán’s anti-Ukraine and eurosceptic platform. However, Orbán may be getting a helping hand from Russia, which has reportedly backed a covert campaign to get him re-elected by spreading disinformation online. While Russian disinformation campaigns are nothing new, the rise of AI has led to convincing deepfakes flooding Hungarians’ feeds. The European Union is weighing whether to step in to crack down on election interference, but it needs to walk a delicate tightrope. Doing so risks fueling Orbán's long-running claim that Brussels is meddling in Hungarian democracy.