While the world has its eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, China’s gaze is fixed farther east: Taiwan. For decades, Beijing’s “One China” policy has asserted that there is only one sovereign Chinese state and that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must return to mainland control – peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary. Now, are the stars aligning for Beijing to advance that goal?
As US President Donald Trump prioritizes an “America First” trade and defense policy, and global attention shifts elsewhere, China sees an opening to make Taiwan’s resistance to reunification harder to sustain. With two weeks to go until Trump meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, China is deploying a mix of carrots and sticks designed to pull Taiwan closer – without firing a shot.
Beijing’s sweet talk. This month, China has made a series of overtures to bolster its case for bringing Taiwan under its control. On April 10, China hosted the first talks in 10 years with a Taiwanese opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, who chairs the Kuomintang (KMT), which together with its allies control the Taiwanese parliament.
While Cheng has called peaceful reunification with China “premature,” she and Xi spent the six-day visit pledging closer ties and harmony across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing announced a new airport with direct flights to Taiwan, increased trade access, and shared infrastructure between Chinese and Taiwanese-controlled islands. China also promised more exchanges between youth groups and “cultural cooperation,” including allowing some television programming from Taiwan to be aired on the mainland. China is hoping this charm offensive helps boost support for unification in Taiwan, which barely hovers above 10% according to most polls.
Then on Wednesday, Beijing leaned in further. Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said that “the security and development interests of the Taiwan region will be fully safeguarded” by China, a claim that may ring hollow given Bejing’s crackdown on freedoms in Hong Kong. It’s also unclear that Taiwan’s social welfare would be improved. Binhua added that “peaceful reunification” with mainland China would “inject greater certainty and growth potential into Taiwan’s investment and business environment.”
Taiwan’s economy, however, doesn’t seem to need much help. It is seeing its greatest boom in 15 years – a projected 11% growth rate in the first quarter of 2026, driven by its semiconductor industry amid the global AI boom. This economic strength gives Taipei both trade leverage and the money to bolster its defenses, including a $12 billion weapons purchase from the US last December.
Beijing’s tough talk. But China’s pursuit of Taiwan uses sticks, not just carrots, to achieve its goal – and it’s been wielding them heavily this past month. Last week, Beijing reportedly pressured the governments of the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar to revoke flight permits for Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-Te’s plane to cross their airspace for his trip to the African nation of Eswatini. Lai was forced to cancel his trip, sending his foreign minister instead.
A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry applauded the three governments for their “commitment to the one-China principle” and added that reunification is inevitable. Since 2016, Taiwan has lost the recognition of 10 countries to China, due to a combination of pressure and financial inducements like infrastructure funding, from Beijing. Taiwan now has just 12 formal diplomatic allies.
On Monday, China also flexed its naval might near the Penghu islands, home to key Taiwanese navy and air bases. Taipei spotted two Chinese warships in the area, saying that it had “closely monitored the formation and responded appropriately using naval and air forces,” without elaborating.
These “grey zone” tactics – so-called because they fall between peace (white) and open war (black) – are routinely used by China to intimidate Taiwan, test its defenses, and exhaust its forces with persistent flights and naval exercises. Since 2016, these incidents have greatly increased: Chinese Navy and Coast Guard vessels sail around Taiwan on a near-continuous basis, and its navy and air force conduct military exercises to disrupt trade. Beijing even violated Taiwan’s territorial airspace with a military drone for the first time in January.
Paving the way for Trump. China’s latest moves set the table for a meeting planned between Trump and Xi on May 14, delayed because of the US’s war with Iran. The two leaders are expected to discuss trade deals on items from corn to critical minerals. But as Jonathan Cheng, Beijing Bureau Chief at The Wall Street Journal, told Ian Bremmer in a recent episode of GZERO World, the big agenda item for China is Taiwan.
“If they [China] can get Donald Trump to shift the official US language on Taiwan towards opposing, let’s say independence for Taiwan,” Cheng explained, “that will be something they can pocket.”
According to a recent US intelligence report, China is not seeking military unification with Taiwan in the short term, but “probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict.” As Ian explained recently, those conditions could include a shift in policy away from the US’s strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, such as a comment by Trump about the country’s independence during an exchange between the two leaders. While no one knows what Trump would say, the US president has given certain signals.
In December, Trump told Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to “lower the volume” on Tokyo’s pledges to defend the island against Chinese aggression. Trump’s desire to end wars could also extends to Taiwan, despite the views of hawks in the US administration who want to continue supporting the island’s defense. It also makes him open to “settling” the dispute, particularly if the US got a trade concession in exchange.
That desire could work in China’s favor, and against the interests of an independent Taiwan. And this isn’t the last pitch. China’s charm offensive could also continue through other channels, including Taiwan’s opposition leader Cheng, who has asked for a meeting with Trump during an upcoming visit to the US in June.
Beijing is already applying pressure on Taiwan, but its biggest leverage may lie with Washington. We’ll see if sweet talk or tough talk prevails.
