China was the only country that pushed back against Trump's tariffs and actually won. Jonathan Cheng, Beijing bureau Chief at The Wall Street Journal, says that changes the entire summit calculus. The tariff cudgel doesn't work anymore, and Beijing knows it.

With Trump distracted by Iran and term-limited, Beijing's strategy is simple: run out the clock. Keep him happy, flatter him, and project to the rest of the world the image of a G2 moment, with China as the stable, predictable partner the US no longer is.

The big prize, Cheng says, is Taiwan. Even a small shift in US language, toward opposing independence rather than supporting the status quo, would be something Beijing could pocket. As for Trump? He's probably looking for calm. And on that, the two sides' interests align.