June 22, 2026
Ian says President Trump assumed Iran would “cave” after US and Israeli strikes against its leadership and military capabilities. Instead, Tehran used its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to force Washington to back down.
“Trump’s two big losses in foreign policy of this administration have been China and Iran,” Ian says, comparing the two and arguing that both show the risks of underestimating adversaries willing to absorb economic and political pressure.
Ian explains that Iran’s short-term advantage may come at a long-term cost. As countries invest in alternative energy routes and infrastructure, Tehran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point may diminish over time.
“Trump’s two big losses in foreign policy of this administration have been China and Iran,” Ian says, comparing the two and arguing that both show the risks of underestimating adversaries willing to absorb economic and political pressure.
Ian explains that Iran’s short-term advantage may come at a long-term cost. As countries invest in alternative energy routes and infrastructure, Tehran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point may diminish over time.
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