What We're Watching

Elections in India, US oil exports are booming from Hormuz shutdown, Meloni shifts the focus to geopolitics

​A woman shows her ink-marked finger after casting her ballot at a polling station during the Assam Legislative Assembly election in Nagaon District, Assam, India, on April 9, 2026.
A woman shows her ink-marked finger after casting her ballot at a polling station during the Assam Legislative Assembly election in Nagaon District, Assam, India, on April 9, 2026.
Photo by Anuwar Hazarika/NurPhoto

Can India’s Modi make inroads in unfriendly territory?

More than 50 million voters in India’s states of Assam and Kerala, along with the federally-administered territory of Puducherry, head to the polls today in regional elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be hoping for a change of fortune in Kerala, a left-leaning southern state where it has never won. For the BJP’s opponents, the aim is to hold on to local power and continue to act as a check on Modi and his party’s dominance. These elections also mark the start of an electoral cycle, with West Bengal and Tamil Nadu – two more states that lean against the BJP – set to hold votes later this month. Results for all these contests are expected on May 4.

An armada steams towards the US

At least 68 empty oil tankers are plying their way towards the United States, according to Kpler, a shipping intelligence firm. That’s a record, and nearly triple the number of tankers making that journey before the start of the Iran war. With the Strait of Hormuz — which handles a fifth of global oil shipping and 80% of oil exports to Asia — still largely shut, consumers are looking elsewhere, particularly to the US, the world’s leading producer. US exports are projected to spike by roughly a third to over 5 million barrels per day, up from a 3.9 million in March. And are you ready for a mashup of two big stories? A significant part of those exports is actually Venezuelan crude, which came under US control after Donald Trump deposed the oil-rich country’s strongman leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

Meloni shifts the spotlight to geopolitics

Giorgia Meloni's first parliamentary appearance since hercrushing referendum defeat was expected to be a reckoning. Instead, she made it about Iran. In a nearly hour-long speech today, she declared reopening the Strait of Hormuz a vital interest for Italy and the European Union, rejected Tehran's push to charge tolls on shipping, and threatened new taxes on energy speculators. Fresh off a Gulf tour to secure energy supplies, she's betting that being a wartime crisis manager beats answering awkward questions about a new tourism minister's corruption trial.

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