What We're Watching

Japan critical minerals deal, Military take over in Madagascar, Argentina week in NYC

Sanae Takaichi announces running for presidential election of the LDP
Sanae Takaichi announces running for presidential election of the LDP
Aflo via Reuters

Japan strikes rare earths deal with largest non-Chinese producer

Australian mining giant Lynaswill sell rare earths to Japan for 12 years in a major pact meant to chip away at China’s dominance of the global market. The highlight of the deal is that it sets a minimum price of $110 per kilogram of the minerals. That is the same “price floor” that the US government included in a rare earths deal of its own last year. Price floors of this kind are meant to protect producers from China, which could attempt to put rivals out of business by flooding the market to drive down prices. The deal also comes as tensions between Japan and China continue to rise — Beijing recently restricted the export of a range of technologies to Tokyo after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Tokyo would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack on the island.

Military power consolidation in Madagascar

In a surprise move, Madagascar’s military leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, fired the country’s prime minister and the entire cabinet on Monday. Randrianirina said a new prime minister would be announced in the coming days, but the unprompted dissolution of government reflects his grip on the African island nation. Randrianirina seized power in a military coup last October, following Gen-Z-led protests that toppled the previous government and demanded political reform and better basic services — Madagascar’s GDP is among the lowest in the region, and power and water are scarce. The protesters have issued a 72-hour ultimatum demanding Randrianirina resign, warning that the dissolution is a power consolidation and threatening to take to the streets.

Milei tries to continue winning streak with New York trip

It’s been a strong few months for Argentina’s President Javier Milei: his party had a successful midterm election last October – giving him the votes to pass his long-sought labor reform bill – his economy has started to recover after a patchy 2025 performance, and the central bank started to accumulate foreign reserves. This week, he’s taking his pitch to Wall Street, seeking to convince US financiers that Argentina’s economic turnaround will continue and that his country can once again be an attractive place for investment. The audience will likely be somewhat skeptical: Argentinian bonds have been an object of ridicule on Wall Street for years – just ask hedge fund manager Paul Singer. But with the Trump administration lending financial and political support to Buenos Aires, could Milei successfully upend this reputation?

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