What We’re Watching: Khamenei’s son emerges as favorite to succeed him, Nepal to hold election, US helps Ecuador in drug raids

Could father-to-son succession return to Iran?

When the Islamic Republic’s senior clerics met yesterday to decide on the next supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly emerged as the favorite to succeed his assassinated father, Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba’s appointment would be viewed as a continuation of the previous regime, but it does present risks: he doesn’t have a major profile in Iran, he’s been tied up in a corruption scandal over the hefty purchases of property abroad, and he also has close links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – so there’s a potential boon for the elite military unit. What’s more, the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979 with a promise to end patrilineal succession. The pledge, it would appear, has passed its statute of limitations.

Nepal to elect new leader, and he may spit bars

Nepalese voters are heading to the polls tomorrow in the first election since a youth-led uprising forced the prime minister to resign last September. Balendra Shah,a 35-year-old rapper-turned-mayor of the capital city Kathmandu, is viewed as the frontrunner. He’s made a name for himself among young voters for his anti-establishment flair and criticism of the political elite in his music. Balendra is pledging sweeping economic change — including creating 1.2 million badly-needed jobs to stop the flow of migration — universal healthcare, and doubling per capita GDP within seven years. According to analysts, whether he is successful will hinge on who he surrounds himself with, as he will face an uphill battle against corruption and bureaucratic inertia.

US assists Ecuador in cartel crackdown

The US is providing logistics and intelligence support to Ecuadorian forces who have unleashed a fresh countrywide crackdown on drug cartels in the South American country. Ecuador is the largest single country of origin for cocaine exports, serving as a trafficking route for top producers based next door in Colombia and Peru. President Daniel Noboa, a Trump ally, won re-election last year on a pledge to crack down on spiraling violence and drug trafficking. Since last year, the US has killed at least 150 people in strikes on what it said were drug trafficking boats off the Venezuelan coast. Whether the broader militarized approach will sustainably bring down the production orrecord global consumption of cocaine is an open question. But if nothing else, the raids signal that even as the US conducts “major combat operations” in the Middle East, Trump isn’t neglecting the “Donroe Doctrine” closer to home.