Will the US midterm elections bring a blue wave?

In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer shares his predictions for the US midterm elections and what a major Democratic victory could mean for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Ian expects Democrats to flip at least 20 seats in the House and win a 51-to-53-seat majority in the Senate, pointing to Trump's declining approval ratings and waning enthusiasm among MAGA voters. He says the election will largely come down to turnout, noting that “the level of enthusiasm that MAGA voters have for Trump has fallen off a cliff.”

Ian also expects a peaceful transfer of power, arguing that the likelihood of an effective effort to overturn the results is “close to zero.” A Democratic wave could leave Trump increasingly constrained by congressional opposition, the courts, and a Republican Party looking beyond 2028.