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Global food crisis: when food isn't merely expensive
Shortages as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine have aggravated a pre-existing global food crisis that could push a billion people — most of them in the poorest parts of the world — into starvation. It's not just one thing: droughts, COVID-induced supply chain snarls, and high energy prices have all gotten us to this point. And it’ll get worse later on if we don’t find ways to future-proof global food systems.
So, what are we gonna do about it? Several experts weighed in during the livestream discussion "Hunger Pains: The growing global food crisis," hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Indeed, we are moving toward a long-term scenario in which countries will simply be unable to produce and export as food as they are now, said Mark Suzman, CEO of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. And that's going to have political consequences.
If more people around the world can't get enough to eat, Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer warned that'll erode the very fabric of globalization — the global middle class. What's more, he added, when people get hungrier, they'll get angrier, and less interested in global solutions to their problems, which will, in turn, be reflected in their choice of government.
The magnitude of the challenge is daunting, said Suzman. Just think of the millions of children who'll become stunted from malnutrition, which means their brains will never become fully developed. He thinks the scale and size of the response so far fall far short of what's needed.
Ertharin Cousin, former head of the UN's World Food Programme, noted how the pandemic laid bare the failure of regional food systems to feed everyone, and now of course the war in Ukraine has made everything worse, for instance by slashing the WFP's capacity to supply food to the needy without Ukrainian grains. If we don't completely rethink the ways we produce and distribute food, she said we may soon transition from an affordability crisis to an availability crisis.
For her part, Kathryn Hollifield, from the World Bank's Global Agriculture and Food Security Program, unpacked the systemic challenges that are hurting the odds of meeting the UN's Sustainable Development Goals by the 2030 deadline.
Thomas Njeru, who knows a thing or two about smallholder farming because he grew up on a small farm in his native Kenya before co-founding a micro-insurance firm for smallholders, called for big agribiz to do more to increase the productivity of smallholders so we don't end up with situations like tomatoes costing four times more in Nairobi than in Chicago.
Finally, David Laborde, a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, predicted that we have already reached peak global food inflation, although prices might rise further at the local level in some countries. He has a very clear message for governments thinking of export bans to address shortages: don't do it, because in the long run it'll hurt your farmers too.
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If we don't act fast to help smallholder farmers, developing world might soon run low on food
Ertharin Cousin, former head of the UN's World Food Programme, doesn't like when people talk about the handoff between humanitarian response and development response.
Why? Because that imperils those caught in between the two, such as smallholder farmers who barely survived the pandemic and are now struggling with the global food price crisis, she explained in a livestream discussion, "Hunger Pains: The growing global food crisis," presented by GZERO Media in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Cousin says we must meet what she refers to as the "midterm" challenges so months from now we don't transition from "a food affordability crisis to a food availability crisis."
That's no exaggeration, she adds, because 80% of the food consumed in the developing world is affected by what smallholder farmers are going through today.
How Russia's war is starving the world: food expert Ertharin Cousin
And it's not just that the prices of things like corn or wheat have doubled. Transport costs are up because gas is more expensive, while supplies of fertilizer are down for the same reason.
Who's most at risk? Developing countries that rely on those imports. The disruptions could double the number of people that went hungry due to the pandemic. Everyone will be affected because we're talking about global commodities, and the worst might be yet to come since agriculture is a seasonal business.
”This is a long, much longer-term potential food challenge,” Cousin says.
The conflict, she says, has put the international community in a tough spot. Sanctions will cause hunger, but otherwise, Russia will continue to profit from selling food to the world. And there's a growing divide between the West and non-aligned developing countries that can't afford to not import Russian food.
Conflict-affected nations are the most vulnerable, but many low-income nations will also struggle because they can't afford subsidies to feed their people.
"As a result," Cousin explains, "you'd have more people slipping into a position where food is maybe available, but inaccessible because they cannot afford it."
Cousin tells Bremmer the West should "move beyond platitudes" and offer developing countries financial support to deal with the food crisis because now with China, "we need to realize we're not the only game in town."
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Danger to the acutely hungry: lack of access, or lack of money
Where will the war make most people go hungry?
The pandemic pushed some 275 million people into acute hunger around the world. How many more will struggle to find their next meal due to the war in Ukraine?
About double that amount, estimates Ertharin Cousin, former head of the UN World Food Programme.
She tells Ian Bremmer that conflict-affected countries are especially vulnerable because their populations depend on the WFP's ability to provide food assistance, but not the only ones in deep trouble.
In low-income nations like Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Guatemala, Haiti or Mali, people will also go hungry as prices rise because governments can't afford to subsidize food.
"As a result," Cousin explains, "you'd have more people slipping into a position where food is maybe available, but inaccessible because they cannot afford it."
Watch the GZERO World episode: A perfect storm of food insecurity: a problem for all of us
War in Ukraine: cascading impacts on global food supply
Russia's war in Ukraine has created a perfect storm for global food security, Ertharin Cousin, former head of the UN World Food Programme, tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
And it's not just that the prices of things like corn or wheat have doubled. Transport costs are up because gas is more expensive, while supplies of fertilizer are down for the same reason.
The food crisis is affecting not only those countries that import stuff from Russia and Ukraine but the entire world. Why? Because these are all global commodities.
What's more, the worst might be yet to come because agriculture is a seasonal business.
"We're not talking about a short term problem here," Cousin says. "This is a long, much longer term of potential food challenge."
Watch the GZERO World episode: A perfect storm of food insecurity: a problem for all of us
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