Boris Johnson is likely to face another no-confidence vote soon
June 07, 2022
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Ian Bremmer takes a look at the week's top stories in geopolitics.
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Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Boris Johnson survives no-confidence vote, but are his days as prime minister still numbered?
Yeah. On balance, I think you're still going to see another no-confidence vote. The rules in the Tory Party executive committee say you can't, but they can change the rules. And because the vote was this close and because there is such opposition with the scandals that he continues to drive, I think the likelihood that you end up with another no-confidence vote in coming months is actually pretty high. So on balance, yeah, I still think his days are numbered. He's holding on by a thread. Good news though, is that he's less likely to cause trouble over Northern Ireland-Ireland border given how weak he is right now. So the Europeans at least are resting a little easily.
Despite boycotts and exclusions, is the Summit of the Americas still relevant?
It's not the most relevant right now. I mean, Biden's Asia trip was very important. Biden's Middle East trip coming up, which will be his first trip to Saudi Arabia, very important, especially with energy prices where they are. The NATO and G7 Summits, given the importance of the Russia war in Ukraine, that's more. I mean, the Summit of the Americas is kind of the forgotten event and even more so because Lopez Obrador has decided not to show up in part because foreign policy doesn't really matter to his domestic constituency and his popularity, which continues to be pretty high in Mexico. Also, because the Americans just don't have a trade agenda. And in the case of Indo-Pac there's a lot of other stuff to talk about so a weak trade framework is okay. But in Latin America, it's mostly about trade and there, there's just not much to talk about. And on the refugee and migration issue, if you don't have the Central American countries there in the Triangle, well, then you have nothing to negotiate. So yeah, this is going to be kind of a non issue. And if Latin America really did matter to American voters, Biden would get punished for it.
Are mass shootings a global humanitarian threat?
I mean, horrible to see in the headlines and certainly the over 50 that have just died in Nigeria from a mass shooting is an abomination to see in the news. But on balance, no. I would say this is really a United States problem. And the gun violence that we continue to see in the United States is, of course, something that is driving an enormous amount of headlines, an enormous amount of feeling of political sort of impotence. But, I see mass shootings in the US still as the way we saw crack cocaine in the '80s and '90s, which is a really horrible thing that most people in power don't really think affect them, and so there's a lot of performative politics and response but not a lot of willingness to take on vested interests. And as a consequence, we keep seeing it happen.
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