Endgame in Iran?

The war in Iran has escalated quickly, with the US, Israel, and Tehran pursuing diverging strategies. As the conflict intensifies, the chance of a short, clean exit for President Trump is slowly slipping away, with munitions stretched thin, oil prices spiking, and no clear path forward.

Thomas Wright, former Senior Director at the US National Security Council, calls it “by its very nature… a war of choice. There was no reason necessarily to do it.” He notes that while the US hopes for a pragmatic partner in Tehran, Israel seeks full regime change. Wright warns that attempts to fragment Iran could backfire, creating a "much bigger headache than managing a regime that was already at its weakest point since 1979.” While strikes have weakened Iran’s nuclear program, further action risks regional chaos.

Looking ahead, Wright outlines potential outcomes, from the best-case scenario of a more legitimate, if not democratic, regime, to the worst-case scenario of a fragmented Iran. For now, Trump faces a far more complex and dangerous environment than he may have anticipated.