Iran conflict: who could run out of weapons first?

The US and Israel have weapons and defense systems that are far more sophisticated than Iran’s. Precision missiles. Advanced radar. Missile defense systems stacked on top of each other. The plan going into Iran was simple: hit hard and fast, destroy Tehran’s military, and force the regime to fold before the fight dragged on.

But the conflict is still unfolding, as Iran relies on its arsenal of ballistic missiles. And right now, the war shows no signs of letting up. So the critical question becomes: whose stockpiles will run out first? The US needs to protect its own military bases and embassies, Israel, as well as its Gulf allies, and could soon be in a position of choosing who to protect if they start to run low on air defenses. If Iran can deplete the US and Israel’s air defense systems through relentless attacks, then Israel and the US will need to recalculate their goal of a swift end to the conflict. Israel's and the US’s precision weapons are elite compared to Iran’s, but they’re also expensive and slow to manufacture. If they start running low, it will take time to replenish.

Iran fired more than 1,200 missiles and drones in the first 48 hours of the war, an acknowledgment that it is in a race to saturate its enemies' air defenses before its own stockpiles of weapons collapse (Iran has already lost 200 ballistic missile launchers, half of its supply, to Israel since last June). But its longer-range missiles are already showing signs of running low: it launched just 20 missiles at Israel on Tuesday, down from 90 on Saturday. Here’s a map of all the countries at risk of Iranian attacks as this conflict teeters on a drawn-out war.