Elections are back in the United States — and so is the money. Six months after the 2024 US presidential vote, Wisconsinites will head to the polls Tuesday to decide whether liberal candidate Susan Crawford or her opponent, conservative Brad Schimel,will tip the ideological balance of the state Supreme Court. The liberals currently have a 4-3 advantage.
Why it matters. This is the first electoral test of President Donald Trump’s second term. Wisconsin is one of the few swing states in the country, so the results are a solid bellwether for how the country feels about Trump — who endorsed Schimel — and his billionaire adviser, Elon Musk.
Strong scent of Musk. Liberal and Democratic groups have tried to make this election about Musk, targeting the Tesla CEO in their ads as they seek to seize upon some voters’ anger at the current government. Meanwhile, Musk has spent over $20 million to support Schimel, even recycling voter engagement tactics he used during the 2024 campaign, like his million-dollar raffles — a judge sanctioned these lotteries on Saturday.
Do liberals have an edge? Polling has been relatively limited on this race — one has the race tied, another has Crawford edging ahead — but Democratic-aligned candidates tend to perform better in off-season elections these days. The liberal candidate won the last Wisconsin Supreme Court race in 2023 by 11 points. As for Brandon Scholz, a Wisconsin-based lobbyist who worked for GOP campaigns for over 40 years, he couldn’t pick a winner.
“You go find your favorite quarter in your draw, and flip it,” he said.